[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 13 March 22 issued 2331 UT on 13 Mar 2022
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Mar 14 10:31:31 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 MARCH 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 14 MARCH - 16 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Mar: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Mar: 123/76
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Mar 15 Mar 16 Mar
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 120/72 115/66
COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 13 Mar with low level
C flares, the largest a C4.9 at 0323 UT from plage region 2962.
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate 14-16 Mar. Region
2965 (N21E11) maintains its magnetic complexity, the trailer
region of 2960 (S20W53) has decayed and 2967 (N15E45) appears
stable and quiet. New region 2968 (S22E49) is simple and spot
development has occurred near S22E31 and S17W13. There was a
filament eruption at ~1030 UT from S58 in the southwest quadrant
and an accompanying faint CME to the south. There is a chance
this CME will graze Earth around 18 Mar. Solar wind parameters
were settled with wind speed around 350-400 km/s until 1009 UT
when a strong discontinuity occurred in all parameters. Since
that time, the wind speed quickly rose to 580 km/s but has since
declined to be near 450 km/s. The total interplanetary magnetic
field strength (IMF) has been strong, above 15 nT since about
1220 UT with a peak of 26 nT. The north-south IMF component (Bz)
has undulated and increased in magnitude since the storm commencement
with range +/-24 nT. This disturbance is expected to continue
over 14 Mar and gradually subside on 15 Mar. Nearer background
conditions are expected on 16 Mar.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Mar: Quiet to Minor
Storm
Estimated Indices 13 Mar : A K
Australian Region 22 00045544
Darwin 19 01045444
Townsville 25 10055544
Learmonth 28 11055554
Alice Springs 22 00045544
Gingin 21 10045543
Canberra 12 00034433
Hobart 22 00045544
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Mar :
Macquarie Island 42 00047663
Casey 25 22355444
Mawson 32 33245555
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 4 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 10 (Quiet)
Canberra 16 (Quiet)
Hobart 26 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 20
Planetary 34
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 10 4420 1212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Mar 34 Unsettled to Minor Storm. Possible Major Storm.
15 Mar 21 Unsettled to Minor Storm
16 Mar 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 14 was issued on 12 March and
is current for 13-14 Mar. Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian
region were quiet 00-09 UT. The CME impact occurred earlier than
expected, causing a weak (16nT) impulse at 1048 UT in the SWS
magnetometer data. Unsettled to minor storm conditions thereafter
were observed. Quiet to severe storm levels were observed in
Antarctica. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be at unsettled
to major storm levels on 14 Mar. unsettled to minor storm levels
on 15 Mar and mostly quiet to unsettled on 16 Mar.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Mar Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Mar Fair Fair Fair-poor
15 Mar Normal Normal-fair Fair
16 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Degraded conditions expected on 14-15 Mar. Conditions
likely to improve late on 15 Mar.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Mar 67
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 90% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 59
Mar 42
Apr 44
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Mar 5 15 to 40% below predicted monthly values
15 Mar 30 Depressed 30%/Near predicted monthly values
16 Mar 60 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS Preliminary HF Communications Warning 23 was issued
on 11 March and is current for 14-15 Mar. SWS SWF HF Communications
Warning 24 was issued on 11 March and is current for 12-14 Mar.
Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on 13 March were near predicted
monthly values to about 20% enhanced with depressions to 25%
after dawn at some mid-latitude sites. The expected geomagnetic
activity has commenced. Degraded MUFs are expected on 14 and
15 Mar with conditions improving in second half of 15 Mar.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.8E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 5.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Mar
Speed: 399 km/sec Density: 3.2 p/cc Temp: 59100 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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