[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 12 March 22 issued 2333 UT on 12 Mar 2022
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Mar 13 10:33:11 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 MARCH 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 13 MARCH - 15 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Mar: Low
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2.3 11/2232UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Mar: 125/78
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Mar 14 Mar 15 Mar
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 120/72 120/72
COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 12 Mar with low level
C flares from regions 2965 (N21E26) and 2962 (N26W32). Solar
activity is expected to be low to moderate 13-15 Mar. Region
2965 has increased in spot count, maintains its magnetic complexity
and has the best potential for flaring. Region 2962 remains a
plage region. Regions 2964 (S26W81) and 2966 (S22W86) will rotate
off the solar disc on 13 Mar with 2964 still active, and regions
2960 (S20W39) and 2967 (N15E60) appear stable and quiet. There
were no Earth directed CMEs observed on 12 Mar. There was a CME
associated with the M2.3 flare at 11/2232 UT but analysis suggests
the CME will not impact Earth. The solar wind speed was mostly
below 450 km/s on 12 Mar. The peak total interplanetary magnetic
field strength (Bt) was 10 nT and remained below 5 nT after ~0330
UT. The north-south IMF (Bz) was southward until 0605 UT and
ranged between +4/-9 nT. Solar wind parameters are currently
settled. The solar wind is likely to become disturbed in the
latter half of 13 Mar or early 14 Mar as two CMEs from a filament
eruption in the southeast quadrant late on 09 Mar and the long
duration C-class flare on 10 Mar arrive. Conditions are expected
to be disturbed on 14 Mar and into 15 Mar.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 12 Mar : A K
Australian Region 6 23312011
Darwin 5 23221011
Townsville 6 23322001
Learmonth 8 33312012
Alice Springs 6 23322001
Gingin 8 33312022
Canberra 4 23212000
Hobart 9 34313010
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Mar :
Macquarie Island 11 44214000
Casey 10 43312122
Mawson 36 66522135
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Mar :
Darwin 7 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 13
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 16 3342 3334
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Mar 12 Quiet to Minor Storm. Slight chance of Major
Storm.
14 Mar 30 Unsettled to Minor Storm. Possible Major Storm.
15 Mar 21 Unsettled to Minor Storm
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 14 was issued on 12 March and
is current for 13-14 Mar. Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian
region were quiet to unsettled on UT day 12 March. Quiet to major
storm levels were observed in Antarctica. Geomagnetic conditions
are expected to be quiet to unsettled on 13 Mar until the arrival
of CME impacts expected in the latter half of the 13th or early
14 Mar. From then, unsettled to minor storm levels are expected.
Major storm periods are possible late on 13 and 14 Mar.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
14 Mar Fair Fair Fair-poor
15 Mar Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions expected on 13 Mar. Degraded
conditions on 14-15 Mar and possibly late 13 Mar.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Mar 60
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 59
Mar 42
Apr 44
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Mar 50 Near predicted monthly values. Possible depressions
late.
14 Mar 5 15 to 40% below predicted monthly values
15 Mar 40 Depressed 25%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS Preliminary HF Communications Warning 23 was issued
on 11 March and is current for 14-15 Mar. SWS SWF HF Communications
Warning 24 was issued on 11 March and is current for 12-14 Mar.
Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on 12 March were near predicted
monthly values to about 20% enhanced at times. Spread F was observed
overnight at Hobart. MUFs are generally expected to be near predicted
monthly values to mildly enhanced on 13 Mar. Geomagnetic activity
expected in the second half of 13 Mar or early 14 Mar is expected
to degrade conditions from then. Degraded MUFs are expected into
15 Mar, improving later.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.8E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 7.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Mar
Speed: 392 km/sec Density: 7.7 p/cc Temp: 75800 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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