[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 11 March 22 issued 2331 UT on 11 Mar 2022
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Mar 12 10:31:20 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 MARCH 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 12 MARCH - 14 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Mar: Low
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2.3 2232UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Mar: 127/80
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Mar 13 Mar 14 Mar
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 125/78 125/78
COMMENT: Solar activity was moderate on UT day 11 Mar with an
M2.3 flare at 2232 UT from region 2965 (S22W72). The background
X-ray flux has been elevated at high B levels. Solar activity
is expected to be low to moderate on UT days 12-14 Mar. Region
2964 is a unipolar group that also produced C flaring. Region
2965 (N21E38) is the largest and most magnetically complex group
and has shown decay and growth in its intermediate area but remains
quiet. Intermediate spots in region 2960 (S20W26) have decayed
and region 2966 (S26W67) also appears to be decaying but is surging
in SDO 304 images. A filament was observed in Learmonth H-alpha
images lifting around 11/0226 UT near S10E67 but there does not
appear to be any associated CME. No Earth directed CMEs were
observed on 11 Mar. The solar wind speed range on 11 Mar was
335-420 km/s. The peak total interplanetary magnetic field strength
(Bt) was 14 nT at the start of the day remaining mildly elevated
for the reporting period. The north-south IMF (Bz) range was
+11/-10 nT. These CME effects are expected to decline over 12
Mar. Solar wind parameters are likely to become disturbed in
the latter half of 13 Mar or early 14 Mar as two CMEs from a
filament eruption in the southeast quadrant late on 09 Mar and
the long duration C-class flare on 10 Mar arrive.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 11 Mar : A K
Australian Region 13 33323233
Darwin 12 33323232
Townsville 13 33323233
Learmonth 13 33323233
Alice Springs 13 33323233
Gingin 11 32322233
Canberra 10 33322222
Hobart 15 33433233
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Mar :
Macquarie Island 24 33455422
Casey 18 44432333
Mawson 38 44643464
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 67 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 16
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 9 2112 2242
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Mar 9 Quiet to Unsettled.
13 Mar 11 Quiet to Unsettled. Active to Minor Storm periods
expected in the second half of the UT day.
14 Mar 30 Unsettled to Minor Storm levels with the possibility
of Major Storm levels.
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 13 was issued on 11 March and
is current for 13-14 Mar. Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian
region were quiet to unsettled on UT day 11 March. Quiet to major
storm levels were observed in Antarctica. Geomagnetic conditions
are expected to be unsettled on 12 Mar and the first half of
13 Mar. CME impacts are expected in the second half of 13 Mar
or early 14 Mar. Active to minor storm levels are then very likely
with major storm levels possible.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
13 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
14 Mar Fair Fair Fair-poor
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions expected on 12 -13 Mar.
Degraded conditions on 14 Mar and possibly late 13 Mar.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Mar 49
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 59
Mar 42
Apr 44
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Mar 60 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
13 Mar 50 Near predicted monthly values.
14 Mar 5 15 to 40% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS Preliminary HF Communications Warning 23 was issued
on 11 March and is current for 14-15 Mar. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on 11 March were mostly near predicted monthly values.
MUFs are generally expected to be near predicted monthly values
to mildly enhanced on 12-13 Mar. Geomagnetic activity expected
in the second half of 13 Mar is likely to degrade conditions
from late on 13 Mar and into 14 Mar.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.90E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:18%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Mar
Speed: 353 km/sec Density: 5.1 p/cc Temp: 45600 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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