[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 11 March 22 issued 2331 UT on 11 Mar 2022

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Mar 12 10:31:20 EST 2022


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 MARCH 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 12 MARCH - 14 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** RED **     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Mar:  Low

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M2.3    2232UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Mar: 127/80


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             12 Mar             13 Mar             14 Mar
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   125/78             125/78             125/78

COMMENT: Solar activity was moderate on UT day 11 Mar with an 
M2.3 flare at 2232 UT from region 2965 (S22W72). The background 
X-ray flux has been elevated at high B levels. Solar activity 
is expected to be low to moderate on UT days 12-14 Mar. Region 
2964 is a unipolar group that also produced C flaring. Region 
2965 (N21E38) is the largest and most magnetically complex group 
and has shown decay and growth in its intermediate area but remains 
quiet. Intermediate spots in region 2960 (S20W26) have decayed 
and region 2966 (S26W67) also appears to be decaying but is surging 
in SDO 304 images. A filament was observed in Learmonth H-alpha 
images lifting around 11/0226 UT near S10E67 but there does not 
appear to be any associated CME. No Earth directed CMEs were 
observed on 11 Mar. The solar wind speed range on 11 Mar was 
335-420 km/s. The peak total interplanetary magnetic field strength 
(Bt) was 14 nT at the start of the day remaining mildly elevated 
for the reporting period. The north-south IMF (Bz) range was 
+11/-10 nT. These CME effects are expected to decline over 12 
Mar. Solar wind parameters are likely to become disturbed in 
the latter half of 13 Mar or early 14 Mar as two CMEs from a 
filament eruption in the southeast quadrant late on 09 Mar and 
the long duration C-class flare on 10 Mar arrive.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 11 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region      13   33323233
      Darwin              12   33323232
      Townsville          13   33323233
      Learmonth           13   33323233
      Alice Springs       13   33323233
      Gingin              11   32322233
      Canberra            10   33322222
      Hobart              15   33433233    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Mar :
      Macquarie Island    24   33455422
      Casey               18   44432333
      Mawson              38   44643464

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Mar : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Hobart              67   (Active)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg        14
           Planetary             16                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              9   2112 2242     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
12 Mar     9    Quiet to Unsettled.
13 Mar    11    Quiet to Unsettled. Active to Minor Storm periods 
                expected in the second half of the UT day.
14 Mar    30    Unsettled to Minor Storm levels with the possibility 
                of Major Storm levels.

COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 13 was issued on 11 March and 
is current for 13-14 Mar. Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian 
region were quiet to unsettled on UT day 11 March. Quiet to major 
storm levels were observed in Antarctica. Geomagnetic conditions 
are expected to be unsettled on 12 Mar and the first half of 
13 Mar. CME impacts are expected in the second half of 13 Mar 
or early 14 Mar. Active to minor storm levels are then very likely 
with major storm levels possible.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
13 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
14 Mar      Fair           Fair           Fair-poor

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions expected on 12 -13 Mar. 
Degraded conditions on 14 Mar and possibly late 13 Mar.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
11 Mar    49

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Feb      59
Mar      42
Apr      44

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
12 Mar    60    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
13 Mar    50    Near predicted monthly values.
14 Mar     5    15 to 40% below predicted monthly values

COMMENT: SWS Preliminary HF Communications Warning 23 was issued 
on 11 March and is current for 14-15 Mar. Maximum usable frequencies 
(MUFs) on 11 March were mostly near predicted monthly values. 
MUFs are generally expected to be near predicted monthly values 
to mildly enhanced on 12-13 Mar. Geomagnetic activity expected 
in the second half of 13 Mar is likely to degrade conditions 
from late on 13 Mar and into 14 Mar.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 10 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.90E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:18%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.3

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Mar
Speed: 353 km/sec  Density:    5.1 p/cc  Temp:    45600 K  Bz:  -3 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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