[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 10 March 22 issued 2333 UT on 10 Mar 2022

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Mar 11 10:33:03 EST 2022


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 MARCH 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 11 MARCH - 13 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Mar:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Mar: 127/80


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             11 Mar             12 Mar             13 Mar
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   120/72             120/72             115/66

COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 10 March. No Earth 
directed CMEs were observed. A ribbon of emission in US GONG 
Halpha images from Cerro Tolo observatory in Chile was observed 
at around 20UT on 10 March. The emission appears to be from the 
background solar chromosphere, possibly along the neutral line 
near now decayed AR2962 and spanned N30W05 to N17W20. A slow 
rise/fall C2 xray flare was observed in association with this 
event. Due to the ribbon structure it is possible a very weak 
proton enhancement (well below ASWAS S1) may follow this event. 
Solar activity is expected to be predominately low for 11 March, 
with a chance of low level M class flaring (ASWAS R1). Solar 
region AR2695 (N21E52) has grown and is now a reasonably large 
solar region, with intermediate spots, however this region remains 
relatively magnetically simple and is relatively quiet. The next 
largest solar region AR2960 (S20W13) was quiet and is in decay. 
New solar region AR2966 (S26W55) has intermediate spots but currently 
exhibits a bipole magnetic configuration. On UT day 10 March, 
the solar wind speed varied from 311 to 498km/sec, the peak total 
interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) strength was 18nT and the 
IMF north-south component (Bz) range was +16/-9nT. The solar 
wind speed initially declined until around 13:50UT, then gradually 
increased. The solar wind parameters show a small discontinuity 
at around 16:30UT, with Bt and Bz both then increasing to peak 
values for the day with Bz strongly positive. The solar wind 
speed did not increase significantly after this discontinuity. 
After 21UT solar wind speed and magnetic field strength both 
began to decline. The SDO images show weak fields and small coronal 
holes near the centre of the solar disk and also in the north 
east solar quadrant. Solar wind may increase slightly over coming 
days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 10 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region       8   11113233
      Darwin               7   21113223
      Townsville           8   11113233
      Learmonth            9   12123233
      Alice Springs        7   11113223
      Gingin               8   21113233
      Canberra             4   01103121
      Hobart               8   11213332    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Mar :
      Macquarie Island    13   11235331
      Casey               14   34422232
      Mawson              21   43223552

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Mar : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart              10   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4   2000 1102     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
11 Mar    12    Unsettled
12 Mar    10    Unsettled
13 Mar    10    Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were 
quiet on UT day 10 March. Active to minor storm levels were observed 
in Antarctica. The expected increase in geomagnetic activity 
second half of the UT day 10 March has failed to eventuate. Geomagnetic 
conditions are expected to be unsettled for today. Occasional 
isolated active periods may be possibly be experienced in coming 
days due to a weak coronal hole wind stream effects.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
12 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
13 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Degraded conditions expected second half of 10 March 
failed to eventuate, normal HF conditions expected.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
10 Mar    71

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15-20%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Feb      59
Mar      42
Apr      44

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
11 Mar    70    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
12 Mar    75    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
13 Mar    75    Near to 15% predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Australian regional maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) 
on 10 March were near predicted monthly values to 15-50% enhanced. 
Regional MUFs are generally expected to be near predicted monthly 
values to 15% enhanced. Mildly degraded conditions expected late 
10 March have failed to eventuate.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 09 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.3E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:17%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.6

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Mar
Speed: 403 km/sec  Density:    2.6 p/cc  Temp:    91100 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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