[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 21 June 22 issued 2330 UT on 21 Jun 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

Wed Jun 22 09:30:49 EST 2022

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 JUNE 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 22 JUNE - 24 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Jun:  R0

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Jun: 139/93

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             22 Jun             23 Jun             24 Jun
Activity     R0, chance of R1   R0, chance of R1   R0, chance of R1
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   130/84             125/78             120/72

COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 21-Jun was at R0 level, with 
several C-class flares. There are currently six numbered sunspot 
regions on the solar disk, with AR3035 (S18W38, beta) and AR3038 
(N16W20, beta) exhibiting spot development over the last 24 hours. 
All remaining sunspot regions are either stable or in decay. 
Solar activity is expected to be at R0 level over 22-24 Jun, 
with a chance of R1. A faint southwest CME was observed in LASCO 
C2 and STEREO-A imagery from 21/0153UT, which appears to be associated 
with AR3034. Model runs indicate that there is a very slight 
chance of a weak impact on Earth, with a possible glancing blow 
early on 24-Jun. Several other CMEs were observed, but none are 
considered to be geoeffective. The solar wind speed on 21-Jun 
remained elevated, ranging between 430-550 km/s, and is currently 
near 480 km/s with a declining trend. The peak total interplanetary 
magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt) was 7 nT, and the north-south 
IMF component (Bz) range was +5 to -5 nT. The solar wind speed 
is expected to continue a declining trend over 22-24 Jun, although 
there is a chance that it may be further enhanced in the next 
few days due to the effects of several small coronal holes currently 
located near the central meridian.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Jun: G0

Estimated Indices 21 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region       6   11231122
      Darwin               5   11231112
      Learmonth            7   22231222
      Alice Springs        5   12131111
      Gingin               7   21232222
      Canberra             4   11131111
      Hobart               5   11131121    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Jun :
      Macquarie Island     7   01333211
      Casey                8   22232321
      Mawson              24   53342254

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Jun : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             6   (Quiet)
      Hobart              17   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             10   2132 3332     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
22 Jun     5    G0
23 Jun     8    G0
24 Jun    12    G0

COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian 
region on UT day 21-Jun. G0 geomagnetic conditions were generally 
observed in the Antarctic region, with isolated periods of G1 
observed at Mawson. G0 conditions are expected over 22-24 Jun. 
There is a very slight chance of mildly disturbed geomagnetic 
conditions early on UT day 24-Jun, due to a possible weak CME 
impact from a CME first observed on 21-Jun.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
23 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
24 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected 
over 22-24 Jun.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
21 Jun    63

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
May      79
Jun      57
Jul      59

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
22 Jun    65    Near predicted monthly values
23 Jun    65    Near predicted monthly values
24 Jun    65    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 21-Jun were 
mostly near monthly predicted values. Spread-F was observed at 
most sites along the east coast of Australia during local night 
hours. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values 
over 22-24 Jun.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 20 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  3.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:11%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: C1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Jun
Speed: 538 km/sec  Density:    9.2 p/cc  Temp:   522000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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