[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 20 June 22 issued 2330 UT on 20 Jun 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jun 21 09:30:50 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 JUNE 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 21 JUNE - 23 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Jun: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Jun: 137/91
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Jun 22 Jun 23 Jun
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 125/78 121/73
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 20-Jun was at R0 level, with
several C-class flares. AR3038 (N16W06, beta-gamma) is the most
complex region, and produced the strongest flare, being a C5.7
at 20/0618UT. AR3038 has exhibited significant growth in the
past 24 hours. AR3030 (N20W70, beta) has also increased in magnetic
complexity, and was responsible for a C5.0 flare at 20/0134UT.
There are currently five numbered sunspot regions on the solar
disk, with the remaining regions either stable or in decay. Solar
activity is expected to be at R0-R1 levels over 21-23 Jun. Several
CMEs were observed, but none are considered to be geoeffective.
A filament eruption was observed in SDO and H-alpha imagery from
20/1834UT at N10W38. Further analysis will be conducted to determine
if there is an associated CME with an Earth-directed component
when more imagery becomes available. The solar wind speed on
20-Jun was elevated, ranging between 470-630 km/s, and is currently
near 490 km/s with a declining trend. The peak total interplanetary
magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt) was 10 nT, and the north-south
IMF component (Bz) range was +6 to -6 nT. Bz was intermittently
southward between 1220-1500UT. The solar wind speed is expected
to continue a declining trend over 21-23 Jun due to waning coronal
hole effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Jun: G0
Estimated Indices 20 Jun : A K
Australian Region 7 11223321
Darwin 5 11222221
Learmonth 8 12223321
Alice Springs 6 11223221
Gingin 8 11223331
Canberra 7 11223321
Hobart 7 11213321
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Jun :
Macquarie Island 12 10223531
Casey 9 23323221
Mawson 31 13433663
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Hobart 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 13 3422 3232
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Jun 8 G0
22 Jun 5 G0
23 Jun 5 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 20-Jun. G0 to G2 conditions were observed in
the Antarctic region. G0 conditions are expected over 21-23 Jun.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Jun Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
22 Jun Normal Normal Normal
23 Jun Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
over 21-23 Jun. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Jun 71
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 79
Jun 57
Jul 59
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Jun 70 Near predicted monthly values
22 Jun 70 Near predicted monthly values
23 Jun 70 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 49 was issued on 19
June and is current for 19-21 Jun. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 20-Jun were mostly near monthly predicted values.
Spread-F was observed at Hobart during local night hours. MUFs
are expected to be near predicted monthly values over 21-23 Jun.
Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+08 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B8.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Jun
Speed: 586 km/sec Density: 9.5 p/cc Temp: 662000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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