[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 19 June 22 issued 2330 UT on 19 Jun 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jun 20 09:30:48 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 JUNE 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 20 JUNE - 22 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Jun: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Jun: 144/98
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Jun 21 Jun 22 Jun
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 138/92 134/88 125/78
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 19 Jun was at the R0 level.
AR3038 (N16E08) produced the largest flare, a C4.0 at 2010 UT.
ARs 3030 (N20W56) and 3038 are the most complex of the seven
spot groups with AR3038 continuing to grow and the other regions
stable. Solar activity is expected to be at the R0 level with
a chance of R1 level flaring on 20-22 Jun. A filament eruption
from the vicinity of N15E35 at 18/2311 UT resulted in a weak
northeast CME at 19/0012 UT. Another filament eruption at 19/0417
UT and located at S45E45 produced a weak southward CME. Neither
are considered geoeffective. The solar wind speed range on 19
Jun was 538-633 km/s. The peak total interplanetary magnetic
field strength was 7 nT and the north-south component (Bz) range
was +4/-5 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to be elevated
on 20 Jun and decline over 21-22 Jun as coronal hole effects
abate.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Jun: G0
Estimated Indices 19 Jun : A K
Australian Region 6 22222220
Darwin 5 22221211
Learmonth 8 33222220
Alice Springs 5 22222210
Gingin 8 33222220
Canberra 6 22222220
Hobart 7 22322220
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Jun :
Macquarie Island 11 22334310
Casey 18 34322541
Mawson 28 65344330
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 11 (Quiet)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Hobart 6 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 13
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 15 4322 1244
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Jun 12 G0
21 Jun 8 G0
22 Jun 7 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 19 Jun. G0 to G2 conditions were observed in
the Antarctic region. G0 conditions are expected on 20-22 Jun.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Jun Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
21 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
22 Jun Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
on 20-22 Jun. Chance of low level short-wave fadeouts.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Jun 74
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to 30%
at Darwin, 14-18 UT.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 79
Jun 57
Jul 59
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Jun 70 Near predicted monthly values
21 Jun 70 Near predicted monthly values
22 Jun 70 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 49 was issued on 19
June and is current for 19-21 Jun. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 19 Jun were mostly near monthly predicted values.
Spread F was observed during local night hours at most Australian
sites. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values
20-22 Jun. Chance of low level short-wave fadeouts.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Jun
Speed: 587 km/sec Density: 9.8 p/cc Temp: 616000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
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