[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 18 June 22 issued 2330 UT on 18 Jun 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jun 19 09:30:49 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 JUNE 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 19 JUNE - 21 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Jun: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Jun: 140/94
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Jun 20 Jun 21 Jun
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 141/95 137/91 134/88
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 18 Jun was at the R0 level.
Decaying AR3031 (S27W57) produced the largest flare, a C4.9 at
2105 UT. ARs 3030 (N20W43) and 3038 (N16E21) have displayed some
growth while the other six spot groups are stable or in decay.
Solar activity is expected to be at the R0 level with a chance
of R1 level flaring on 19-21 Jun. No Earth-directed CMEs have
been observed in the available coronagraph images. A filament
to the northeast of AR3032 N20W32) has been active but has not
erupted. The solar wind speed on 18 Jun trended lower, ranging
between 541-637 km/s. The peak total interplanetary magnetic
field strength (Bt) was 7 nT and the north-south component (Bz)
range was +/-5 nT. Bz has been mostly mildly southward since
about 1915 UT. The solar wind speed is expected to decline over
19-21 Jun as coronal hole effects abate.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Jun: G0
Estimated Indices 18 Jun : A K
Australian Region 6 22220123
Darwin 5 12220122
Learmonth 6 22220123
Alice Springs 6 22220123
Gingin 7 32220123
Canberra 5 22120122
Hobart 5 22120122
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Jun :
Macquarie Island 4 22121012
Casey 11 33231114
Mawson 36 65342246
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Hobart 9 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 11
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 14 4223 2253
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Jun 10 G0
20 Jun 8 G0
21 Jun 7 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 18 Jun. G0 conditions were observed in the Antarctic
region with G1-G2 levels observed at Mawson. G0 conditions are
expected on 19-21 Jun.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Jun Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
20 Jun Normal Normal Normal
21 Jun Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
on 19-21 Jun.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Jun 72
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 79
Jun 57
Jul 59
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Jun 70 Near predicted monthly values
20 Jun 70 Near predicted monthly values
21 Jun 65 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 18 Jun were
mostly near monthly predicted values. Spread F was observed at
Hobart, Norfolk and Townsville during local night hours. MUFs
are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values 19-21
Jun.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.6E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B9.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Jun
Speed: 598 km/sec Density: 9.2 p/cc Temp: 574000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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