[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 22 June 22 issued 2330 UT on 22 Jun 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jun 23 09:30:47 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 JUNE 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 23 JUNE - 25 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Jun: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Jun: 129/82
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Jun 24 Jun 25 Jun
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 120/72 115/66
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 22-Jun was at the R0 level,
with several C-class flares. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot
regions on the solar disk. AR3038 (N16W33, beta gamma) is currently
the most complex region, and AR3035 (S18W52, beta) has shown
some spot growth. All other active regions are stable. Solar
activity is expected to be at the R0 level over 23-25 Jun, with
a chance of R1. Several CMEs were observed in LASCO imagery but
none are considered to be geoeffective. A filament eruption occurred
at 22/1841UT at N13W67. The solar wind speed on 22-Jun ranged
from 411-536 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength
(IMF, Bt) was 9 nT, and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range
was +5 to -7 nT. Wind speeds are expected to decline over 23-Jun,
but mildly increase again over 24-25 Jun due to combined effects
of coronal holes and a weak CME impact first observed 21-Jun.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Jun: G0
Estimated Indices 22 Jun : A K
Australian Region 6 11223121
Darwin 5 11222121
Learmonth 7 2-------
Alice Springs 6 11223121
Gingin 8 21223132
Canberra 6 11223121
Hobart 6 11223121
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Jun :
Macquarie Island 11 11344211
Casey 9 32222232
Mawson 39 55544264
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 6 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 15 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 7 2212 2223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Jun 8 G0
24 Jun 13 G0
25 Jun 13 G0
COMMENT: G0 conditions were observed in the Australian region
on UT day 22-Jun. G0 conditions were generally observed in the
Antarctic region, with periods of G1 and G2 observed at Mawson.
G0 conditions are expected over 23-25 Jun. Mildly disturbed geomagnetic
conditions on 24-25 Jun, due to coronal holes effects and a possible
weak CME impact first observed 21-Jun.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Jun Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
24 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
25 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
over 23-25 Jun. Chance of shortwave fadeouts.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Jun 65
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 79
Jun 57
Jul 59
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Jun 65 Near predicted monthly values
24 Jun 65 Near predicted monthly values
25 Jun 60 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 22-Jun were
mostly near monthly predicted values. Spread-F was observed at
Canberra and Hobart during local night hours. MUFs are expected
to be near predicted monthly values over 23-25 Jun. Chance of
shortwave fadeouts.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Jun
Speed: 502 km/sec Density: 6.8 p/cc Temp: 225000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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