[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 05 June 22 issued 2330 UT on 05 Jun 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jun 6 09:30:46 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 JUNE 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 06 JUNE - 08 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Jun: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Jun: 99/46
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Jun 07 Jun 08 Jun
Activity R0 R0 R0
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 105/54 105/54
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 05 Jun was at the R0 level.
Region 3029 (S29E49) was the most active of the spotted groups,
producing two low-level C flares. The other regions are stable
or in decline. Solar activity is expected to be at the R0 level
over 06-08 Jun. A filament erupted from the vicinity of S35W47
around 05/1202 UT resulting in a southwest CME. There was also
a southeast CME that was probably associated with the flare activity
in AR3029 around 05/1148 UT. Neither of these CMEs are likely
to be geoeffective. The solar wind speed on 05 Jun peaked at
300 km/s. The peak total interplanetary magnetic field strength
(Bt) was 7 nT, and the north-south component (Bz) range was +6/-5
nT. A minor shock in the solar wind due to a CME observed on
02 Jun is still possible in the first half of 06 Jun. If this
occurs, solar wind parameters are expected to be mildly elevated
over 06 Jun. Solar wind parameters should then settle over 07
Jun. There is the possibility of a weak CME impact late on 07
to early 08 Jun, which may slightly elevate wind parameters above
ambient levels on 08 Jun.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Jun: G0
Estimated Indices 05 Jun : A K
Australian Region 1 00100111
Darwin 2 01101111
Learmonth 2 10101111
Alice Springs 1 01000110
Gingin 2 10100021
Canberra 0 00000000
Hobart 0 00010000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Jun :
Macquarie Island 0 00010000
Casey 3 11111021
Mawson 15 22112163
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 1110 1221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Jun 15 G0 with a chance of G1 conditions
07 Jun 9 G0
08 Jun 7 G0
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 26 was issued on 2 June and
is current for 5-6 Jun. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian region on 05 Jun. G0-G2 conditions were observed
in the Antarctic region. G0 conditions are expected on 06-08
Jun with a chance of G1 conditions on 06 Jun due to the anticipated
arrival of a CME first observed on 02 Jun.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Jun Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
07 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
08 Jun Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
on 06-08 Jun. There may be some minor to moderate degradations
on 06 Jun due to the anticipated arrival of a CME first observed
on 02 Jun.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Jun 58
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 45% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values. Depressions
to 30% at Darwin 11-16 UT.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 79
Jun 57
Jul 59
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Jun 55 Near predicted monthly values
07 Jun 50 Near predicted monthly values
08 Jun 50 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 05 Jun were
mostly near monthly predicted values to about 15% depressed.
Nighttime spread F was observed at Hobart, Perth, Learmonth and
Townsville. Sporadic E was observed at Brisbane, Canberra, Darwin
and Learmonth 08-11 UT. MUFs are expected to be near monthly
predicted values with occasional mild depressions over 06-08
Jun.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.8E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.20E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:23%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Jun
Speed: 295 km/sec Density: 7.1 p/cc Temp: 20300 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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