[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 04 June 22 issued 2330 UT on 04 Jun 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jun 5 09:30:50 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 JUNE 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 05 JUNE - 07 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Jun: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Jun: 101/49
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Jun 06 Jun 07 Jun
Activity R0 R0 R0
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 100/48 100/48
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 04 Jun was at the R0 level.
Regions 3024 (S33W59), 3026 (N16W78) and 3027 (S17W37) have decayed,
region 3023 (S15W67) appears stable. There has been some spot
development near N11E54 and S21E64. Solar activity is expected
to be at the R0 level over 05-07 Jun. An approx. 20 degree long
filament erupted from the vicinity of N35E30 at around 04/0156
UT resulting in a CME that may result in a weak impact around
the end of 07 Jun. The solar wind speed on 04 Jun was below 311
km/s. The peak total interplanetary magnetic field strength (Bt)
was 4 nT, and the north-south component (Bz) range was +/-3 nT.
The solar wind speed is expected to remain near background levels
until mid 05 Jun. A minor shock is then anticipated due to a
CME observed on 02 Jun. Solar wind parameters are then expected
to be mildly elevated on 06 Jun, and near ambient levels on 07
Jun.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Jun: G0
Estimated Indices 04 Jun : A K
Australian Region 0 10000000
Darwin 1 11100001
Learmonth 1 11000001
Alice Springs 0 00000000
Gingin 0 10000010
Canberra 0 00000000
Hobart 0 00001000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Jun :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 2 12100010
Mawson 10 22210053
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 1121 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Jun 16 G0 with chance of G1
06 Jun 13 G0 with a chance of G1
07 Jun 8 G0
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 26 was issued on 2 June and
is current for 5-6 Jun. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian region on 03 Jun. G0-G1 conditions were observed
in the Antarctic region. G0 conditions are expected on 05-07
Jun with a chance of G1 conditions from mid 05 Jun to mid 06
Jun due to the anticipated arrival of a CME first observed on
02 Jun.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Jun Normal Normal-fair Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Jun Normal Normal-fair Fair
06 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
07 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
on 05 and 07 Jun. There may be some minor to moderate degradations
on 06 Jun due to the anticipated arrival of a CME first observed
on 02 Jun.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Jun 48
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 79
Jun 57
Jul 59
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Jun 50 Near predicted monthly values
06 Jun 55 Near predicted monthly values
07 Jun 50 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 04 Jun were
near monthly predicted values to about 15% depressed. There were
occasional depressions to around 25% at the lower latitude sites,
mostly during early evening. Nighttime spread F was observed
at most mid-latitude locations and Darwin. MUFs are expected
to be near monthly predicted values with occasional mild depressions
over 05-07 Jun.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.3E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.20E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:21%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Jun
Speed: 325 km/sec Density: 4.6 p/cc Temp: 17000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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