[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 04 June 22 issued 2330 UT on 04 Jun 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jun 5 09:30:50 EST 2022


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 JUNE 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 05 JUNE - 07 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Jun:  R0

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Jun: 101/49


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             05 Jun             06 Jun             07 Jun
Activity     R0                 R0                 R0
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   100/48             100/48             100/48

COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 04 Jun was at the R0 level. 
Regions 3024 (S33W59), 3026 (N16W78) and 3027 (S17W37) have decayed, 
region 3023 (S15W67) appears stable. There has been some spot 
development near N11E54 and S21E64. Solar activity is expected 
to be at the R0 level over 05-07 Jun. An approx. 20 degree long 
filament erupted from the vicinity of N35E30 at around 04/0156 
UT resulting in a CME that may result in a weak impact around 
the end of 07 Jun. The solar wind speed on 04 Jun was below 311 
km/s. The peak total interplanetary magnetic field strength (Bt) 
was 4 nT, and the north-south component (Bz) range was +/-3 nT. 
The solar wind speed is expected to remain near background levels 
until mid 05 Jun. A minor shock is then anticipated due to a 
CME observed on 02 Jun. Solar wind parameters are then expected 
to be mildly elevated on 06 Jun, and near ambient levels on 07 
Jun.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Jun: G0

Estimated Indices 04 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region       0   10000000
      Darwin               1   11100001
      Learmonth            1   11000001
      Alice Springs        0   00000000
      Gingin               0   10000010
      Canberra             0   00000000
      Hobart               0   00001000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Jun :
      Macquarie Island     0   00000000
      Casey                2   12100010
      Mawson              10   22210053

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Jun : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4   1121 1111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
05 Jun    16    G0 with chance of G1
06 Jun    13    G0 with a chance of G1
07 Jun     8    G0

COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 26 was issued on 2 June and 
is current for 5-6 Jun. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed 
in the Australian region on 03 Jun. G0-G1 conditions were observed 
in the Antarctic region. G0 conditions are expected on 05-07 
Jun with a chance of G1 conditions from mid 05 Jun to mid 06 
Jun due to the anticipated arrival of a CME first observed on 
02 Jun.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Jun      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Jun      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair
06 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
07 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected 
on 05 and 07 Jun. There may be some minor to moderate degradations 
on 06 Jun due to the anticipated arrival of a CME first observed 
on 02 Jun.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
04 Jun    48

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
May      79
Jun      57
Jul      59

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
05 Jun    50    Near predicted monthly values
06 Jun    55    Near predicted monthly values
07 Jun    50    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 04 Jun were 
near monthly predicted values to about 15% depressed. There were 
occasional depressions to around 25% at the lower latitude sites, 
mostly during early evening. Nighttime spread F was observed 
at most mid-latitude locations and Darwin. MUFs are expected 
to be near monthly predicted values with occasional mild depressions 
over 05-07 Jun.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 03 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.3E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  3.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.20E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:21%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.8

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Jun
Speed: 325 km/sec  Density:    4.6 p/cc  Temp:    17000 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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