[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 06 June 22 issued 2330 UT on 06 Jun 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jun 7 09:30:48 EST 2022 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 JUNE 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 07 JUNE - 09 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Jun:  R0

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Jun:  96/43


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             07 Jun             08 Jun             09 Jun
Activity     R0                 R0                 R0, chance R1
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    95/41              95/41              95/41

COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 06 Jun was at the R0 level, 
with no significant flare activity. There are currently no significant 
sunspot groups on the visible solar disk. No significant Earth 
directed CMEs have been observed in the past 24 hours. A weak 
shock was observed in the solar wind at 0920UT on 06 Jun, from 
a solar filament eruption on 02 Jun. The north-south component 
of the interplanetary magnetic field briefly fluctuated southward 
before turning northward post shock arrival. The solar wind speed 
on 06 Jun varied from 262 to 323km/sec. The peak total interplanetary 
magnetic field strength (Bt) was 13 nT, and the north-south component 
(Bz) range was +13/-11nT. Solar wind parameters should then settle 
over 07 Jun. There is the possibility of a weak CME impact late 
on 07 to early 08 Jun, which may slightly elevate wind parameters 
above ambient levels on 08 Jun. Solar flare activity is expected 
to be predominately at the R0 level for the next two days, then 
possibly increasing due to the potential return of a previously 
flaring solar region.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Jun: G0, with an isolated 
G1 period

Estimated Indices 06 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region       8   11143122
      Darwin               8   11143122
      Learmonth           13   11153233
      Alice Springs        7   00043122
      Gingin               7   11032133
      Canberra             4   00132112
      Hobart               4   00132112    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Jun :
      Macquarie Island     6   00243001
      Casey                8   11142123
      Mawson              28   43253246

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Jun : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               4   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              4   1111 1122     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
07 Jun     9    G0
08 Jun     9    G0
09 Jun     5    G0

COMMENT: G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian 
region on 06 Jun. G0-G2 conditions were observed in the Antarctic 
region. A weak (14nT) impulse was observed at 1033UT, in association 
with a CME observed on 02 Jun. No significant geomagnetic activity 
followed the geomagnetic impulse.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Jun      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair           

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
08 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
09 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected 
on 07-09 Jun.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
06 Jun    53

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
May      79
Jun      57
Jul      59

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
07 Jun    50    Near predicted monthly values
08 Jun    50    Near predicted monthly values
09 Jun    50    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 06 Jun were 
mostly near monthly predicted values to about 15% depressed. 
Nighttime spread F was observed at Australian east coast ionosonde 
stations. MUFs are expected to be near monthly predicted values. 
Mildly degraded HF conditions may be experienced at times during 
local night hours.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 05 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.9E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  3.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:15%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.5

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Jun
Speed: 285 km/sec  Density:   12.3 p/cc  Temp:    24400 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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