[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 10 July 22 issued 2330 UT on 10 Jul 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jul 11 09:30:54 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 JULY 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 11 JULY - 13 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Jul: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Jul: 153/108
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Jul 12 Jul 13 Jul
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 160/114 155/109 145/99
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 10-Jul was at the R0 level
with low level C-class flaring. There are currently six numbered
sunspot groups visible on the solar disk. AR3053 (N13E10, beta)
and AR3055 (S16E20, beta) are the largest sunspot regions, AR3055
showed spot development over the 24 hour period, whilst AR3053
showed some decay in its trailer spots. A new region AR3056 (S19E69,
beta) has appeared on the solar disk. All other regions are stable
or in decay. AR3051 (N23W51, alpha) and AR3056 were responsible
for the majority of the flaring over the 24 hour period. A new
unnumbered region has recently rotated onto the solar disk at
N15E75. Solar activity is expected to be at R0-R1 levels over
11-13 Jul. Several CMEs were observed but none are considered
to be geoeffective. An erupting prominence is visible on SDO
and H-Alpha imagery from 10/1706UT at around S50 on the western
limb. An associated southwest CME is visible in STEREO-A and
LASCO C2 imagery from 10/1812UT. Modelling indicates that it
is not geoeffective. There are several large filaments currently
on the solar disk. One is roughly 40 degrees long and stretches
from S48E16 to S27W20 and will continue to be in a geoeffective
location over the coming days, to be monitored for potential
eruptions. An equatorial coronal hole is currently crossing the
central meridian, and is expected to influence the solar wind
speed in the coming days. The solar wind speed on 10-Jul ranged
between 346-417 km/s and is currently near 340 km/s. The peak
total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 11 nT and the
north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +7 to -8 nT. Bz was
intermittently southward between 0721-1421UT. The solar wind
speed is expected to increase over 11-13 Jul due to the onset
of an equatorial coronal hole high speed wind stream. There is
a slight chance for an increase in the solar wind speed from
late on UT day 11-Jul due a possible weak impact from a CME first
observed on 08-Jul.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Jul: G0
Estimated Indices 10 Jul : A K
Australian Region 3 11212010
Darwin 4 01312111
Learmonth 4 12312010
Alice Springs 3 11212010
Gingin 3 02212020
Canberra 3 11212010
Hobart 3 11212010
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Jul :
Macquarie Island 7 00244000
Casey 6 23212121
Mawson 13 21423143
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6 2100 2232
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Jul 10 G0
12 Jul 14 G0
13 Jul 15 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in both the
Australian and Antarctic regions over UT day 10-Jul. G0 geomagnetic
conditions are expected over 11-13 Jul. Geomagnetic activity
is expected to increase from 12-Jul due to the onset of an equatorial
coronal hole high speed wind stream. There is a slight chance
of mildly disturbed geomagnetic conditions from late on UT day
11-Jul due a possible weak impact from a CME first observed on
08-Jul.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
12 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
13 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
over 11-13 Jul. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Jul 57
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 60
Jul 65
Aug 67
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Jul 65 Near predicted monthly values
12 Jul 65 Near predicted monthly values
13 Jul 65 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 53 was issued on 8
July and is current for 9-11 Jul. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 10-Jul were generally near predicted monthly
values, with mild depressions observed in northern Australian
regions during local nighttime hours. Spread-F was observed at
Hobart during local nighttime hours. MUFs are expected to be
near predicted monthly values over 11-13 Jul, with degraded conditions
possible for the northern Australian region during local night
hours. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B8.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Jul
Speed: 361 km/sec Density: 5.6 p/cc Temp: 45700 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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