[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 09 July 22 issued 2330 UT on 09 Jul 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jul 10 09:30:47 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 JULY 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 10 JULY - 12 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Jul: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Jul: 137/91
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Jul 11 Jul 12 Jul
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 138/92 140/94 135/89
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 09-Jul was at the R0 level.
There are currently five numbered sunspot groups visible on the
solar disk. AR3053 (N13E23, beta) and AR3055 (S16E33, beta) are
the largest sunspot regions and both showed spot development
over the 24 hour period. AR3051 (N23W38, beta) is unstable. All
other regions are stable. Solar activity is expected to be at
R0-R1 levels over 10-12 Jul. Two CMEs were observed but neither
are considered to be geoeffective. An eruption on the solar limb
around S20 at 09/1337UT, visible in SDO, GOES SUVI, and H-alpha
imagery, produced a CME first observed at 09/1400UT in LASCO
C2 and STEREO-A imagery. This is associated with a C8.5 flare
from AR3047 (S20W86), which was the strongest flare during the
24 period. Enlil modelling indicates that this CME is not geoeffective.
A northwest-directed CME was observed from 09/1536UT in LASCO
C2 and STEREO-A imagery. This is considered to be a far side
event, and is not considered to be geoeffective. Model runs of
a previous CME first observed from 08/2123UT associated with
an M2.5 flare indicate that there is a slight chance of a glancing
blow to Earth. with a possible weak impact from late on UT day
11-Jul. There are several large filaments currently on the solar
disk. There are two in the southwest quadrant that will move
to a geoeffective location over the coming days, to be monitored
for potential eruptions. An equatorial coronal hole is currently
crossing the central meridian, and is expected to influence the
solar wind speed in the coming days. The solar wind speed on
09-Jul ranged between 319-413 km/s and is currently near 380
km/s and is trending upwards. The peak total interplanetary field
strength (IMF, Bt) was 8 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +8 to -5 nT. The solar wind speed is expected
to continue an upward trend over 10-12 Jul. An increase due to
equatorial coronal effects is expected towards the end of the
period.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Jul: G0
Estimated Indices 09 Jul : A K
Australian Region 2 11002110
Darwin 3 21002111
Learmonth 3 11112101
Alice Springs 2 11102110
Gingin 2 11002110
Canberra 2 12002100
Hobart 1 11001100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Jul :
Macquarie Island 2 11001200
Casey 3 13101101
Mawson 9 22001144
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 21 5533 3332
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Jul 5 G0
11 Jul 10 G0
12 Jul 14 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in both the
Australian and Antarctic regions over UT day 09-Jul. G0 geomagnetic
conditions are expected over 10-12 Jul. There is a slight chance
of mildly disturbed geomagnetic conditions from late on UT day
11-Jul due a possible weak impact from a CME first observed on
08-Jul.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Jul Normal Normal Normal
11 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
12 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
over 10-12 Jul. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Jul 53
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 60
Jul 65
Aug 67
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Jul 60 Near predicted monthly values
11 Jul 65 Near predicted monthly values
12 Jul 65 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 53 was issued on 8
July and is current for 9-11 Jul. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 09-Jul were generally near predicted monthly
values, with depressions of 15% observed in Australian regions
during local nighttime hours. Spread-F was observed at Hobart
during local night hours. MUFs are expected to be near predicted
monthly values over 10-12 Jul, with degraded conditions possible
for the southern Australian region during local night hours.
Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Jul
Speed: 409 km/sec Density: 10.5 p/cc Temp: 71500 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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