[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 08 July 22 issued 2330 UT on 08 Jul 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jul 9 09:30:47 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 JULY 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 09 JULY - 11 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Jul: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2.5 2050UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Jul: 130/84
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Jul 10 Jul 11 Jul
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 132/86 132/86 130/84
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 08-Jul was at the R1 level,
with an M2.5 flare at 08/2049UT from AR3053 (N13E36, beta). There
are currently five numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk.
AR3053 remains the largest sunspot group and is unstable. AR3051
(N26W25, beta) and AR3055 (S16E46, beta) have shown spot development.
All other numbered sunspot regions are either stable or in decay.
Solar activity is expected to be at R0-R1 levels over 09-11 Jul.
Several CMEs were observed, but none are considered geoeffective
at this stage, although further analysis will be conducted when
more LASCO coronagraph imagery becomes available. An erupting
prominence was observed on the southwest limb in SDO imagery
from 07/2258UT and a subsequent CME in LASCO C2 from 08/0125UT.
Enlil model runs indicate that this CME is not geoeffective.
The solar wind speed on 08-Jul ranged between 375-435 km/s and
is currently near 380 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field
strength (IMF, Bt) was 22 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +19 to -12 nT, with an interval of southward IMF
conditions concluding at 08/0100UT. The solar wind speed is expected
to remain mildly elevated over 09-11 Jul, with a declining trend
toward near background levels.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Jul: G0
Estimated Indices 08 Jul : A K
Australian Region 10 33332121
Darwin 9 23332121
Learmonth 11 33333121
Alice Springs 9 33322121
Gingin 9 33322121
Canberra 10 33332121
Hobart 10 33233121
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Jul :
Macquarie Island 16 43254111
Casey 9 23422022
Mawson 44 75533162
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 17
Planetary 20
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 17 0022 5444
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Jul 12 G0
10 Jul 8 G0
11 Jul 5 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 08-Jul. G0-G3 conditions were observed in the
Antarctic region. G1 conditions were observed in the planetary
K-index. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected in the Australian
region over 09-11 Jul. In the SWS magnetometer data for 08-Jul,
a weak (12nT) impulse was observed at 08/0745UT.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Jul Normal-fair Fair-poor Poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
10 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
11 Jul Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
over 09-11 Jul, with degraded HF conditions possible for high
latitudes. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Jul 69
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 45% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 60
Jul 65
Aug 67
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Jul 70 Near predicted monthly values
10 Jul 70 Near predicted monthly values
11 Jul 70 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 53 was issued on 8
July and is current for 9-11 Jul. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 08-Jul were generally near predicted monthly
values, with depressions of 30-45% observed in southern Australian
regions. Spread-F was observed at most sites during local night
hours, indicating degraded HF conditions. MUFs are expected to
be near predicted monthly values over 09-11 Jul, with degraded
conditions possible for the southern Australian region during
local night hours. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Jul
Speed: 382 km/sec Density: 11.3 p/cc Temp: 43000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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