[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 07 July 22 issued 2330 UT on 07 Jul 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jul 8 09:30:50 EST 2022


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 JULY 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 08 JULY - 10 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Jul:  R0

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Jul: 121/73


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             08 Jul             09 Jul             10 Jul
Activity     R0-R1              R0-R1              R0-R1
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   128/81             130/84             130/84

COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 07-Jul was at the R0 level, 
with no significant flaring. There are currently six numbered 
sunspot regions on the solar disk. AR3053 (N13E49, beta) is currently 
the largest sunspot group and appears stable. AR3051 (N26W12, 
beta) has shown spot development. AR3046 (N17W18, beta) is unstable. 
AR3055 (S16E59, beta) has recently rotated onto the solar disk 
and appears stable. All other numbered regions are either stable 
or in decay. Solar activity is expected to be at R0 to R1 levels 
over 08-10 Jul. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed. A west 
directed CME was observed in STEREO-A imagery from 07/1938UT 
and is currently considered a farside event (not geoeffective). 
The solar wind speed on 07-Jul ranged between 300-420km/s and 
is currently near 385km/s. Two possible weak shock signatures 
in the solar wind were observed at 07/0603UT and 07/0812UT. The 
peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 22 nT 
and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +6 to -19 nT, 
with an ongoing interval of southward IMF conditions from 07/1033UT. 
The solar wind parameters potentially indicate the combined effects 
of a weak CME signature and anticipated coronal hole effects. 
Solar wind speed is expected to increase over 08-10 Jul due to 
coronal hole effects.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Jul: G0

Estimated Indices 07 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region      10   00323333
      Darwin               8   00323223
      Learmonth           12   00334333
      Alice Springs        9   00323323
      Gingin              12   00224334
      Canberra             8   00213333
      Hobart               0   00------    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Jul :
      Macquarie Island    34   00136663
      Casey               10   12224223
      Mawson              26   00214556

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Jul : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg        14
           Planetary             23                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5   1111 1212     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
08 Jul    18    G0, with a slight chance G1
09 Jul    12    G0
10 Jul     8    G0

COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 32 was issued on 3 July and 
is current for 06-08 Jul. G0 conditions were observed in the Australian 
region on UT day 07-Jul. G0-G2 conditions were observed in the 
Antarctic region. G1 conditions were observed in the planetary 
K-index. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected in the Australian 
region over 08-10 Jul, with a slight chance of G1 on 08-Jul due 
to coronal hole high speed wind stream effects. In the SWN magnetometer 
data for 07-Jul, a weak (11nT) geomagnetic impulse was observed 
at 07/0659UT.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Jul      Normal         Normal-fair    Poor-fair      

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Jul      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair
09 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
10 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected 
over 08-10 Jul, with degraded HF conditions possible for to high 
latitudes, due to coronal hole high speed wind stream induced 
geomagnetic activity. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
07 Jul    49

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jun      60
Jul      65
Aug      67

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
08 Jul    50    Depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
09 Jul    60    Near predicted monthly values
10 Jul    60    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 07-Jul were 
generally near predicted monthly values, with spread-F observed 
during local night hours indicating degraded HF conditions. MUFs 
are expected to be near predicted monthly values over 08-10 Jul, 
with degraded conditions possible for the southern Australian 
region due to coronal hole high speed wind stream induced geomagnetic 
activity. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 06 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.2E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  3.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.8

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Jul
Speed: 332 km/sec  Density:   14.0 p/cc  Temp:    31300 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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