[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 07 July 22 issued 2330 UT on 07 Jul 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jul 8 09:30:50 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 JULY 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 08 JULY - 10 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Jul: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Jul: 121/73
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Jul 09 Jul 10 Jul
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 128/81 130/84 130/84
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 07-Jul was at the R0 level,
with no significant flaring. There are currently six numbered
sunspot regions on the solar disk. AR3053 (N13E49, beta) is currently
the largest sunspot group and appears stable. AR3051 (N26W12,
beta) has shown spot development. AR3046 (N17W18, beta) is unstable.
AR3055 (S16E59, beta) has recently rotated onto the solar disk
and appears stable. All other numbered regions are either stable
or in decay. Solar activity is expected to be at R0 to R1 levels
over 08-10 Jul. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed. A west
directed CME was observed in STEREO-A imagery from 07/1938UT
and is currently considered a farside event (not geoeffective).
The solar wind speed on 07-Jul ranged between 300-420km/s and
is currently near 385km/s. Two possible weak shock signatures
in the solar wind were observed at 07/0603UT and 07/0812UT. The
peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 22 nT
and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +6 to -19 nT,
with an ongoing interval of southward IMF conditions from 07/1033UT.
The solar wind parameters potentially indicate the combined effects
of a weak CME signature and anticipated coronal hole effects.
Solar wind speed is expected to increase over 08-10 Jul due to
coronal hole effects.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Jul: G0
Estimated Indices 07 Jul : A K
Australian Region 10 00323333
Darwin 8 00323223
Learmonth 12 00334333
Alice Springs 9 00323323
Gingin 12 00224334
Canberra 8 00213333
Hobart 0 00------
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Jul :
Macquarie Island 34 00136663
Casey 10 12224223
Mawson 26 00214556
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 23
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 1111 1212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Jul 18 G0, with a slight chance G1
09 Jul 12 G0
10 Jul 8 G0
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 32 was issued on 3 July and
is current for 06-08 Jul. G0 conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 07-Jul. G0-G2 conditions were observed in the
Antarctic region. G1 conditions were observed in the planetary
K-index. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected in the Australian
region over 08-10 Jul, with a slight chance of G1 on 08-Jul due
to coronal hole high speed wind stream effects. In the SWN magnetometer
data for 07-Jul, a weak (11nT) geomagnetic impulse was observed
at 07/0659UT.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Jul Normal Normal-fair Poor-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Jul Normal Normal-fair Fair
09 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
10 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
over 08-10 Jul, with degraded HF conditions possible for to high
latitudes, due to coronal hole high speed wind stream induced
geomagnetic activity. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Jul 49
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 60
Jul 65
Aug 67
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Jul 50 Depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
09 Jul 60 Near predicted monthly values
10 Jul 60 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 07-Jul were
generally near predicted monthly values, with spread-F observed
during local night hours indicating degraded HF conditions. MUFs
are expected to be near predicted monthly values over 08-10 Jul,
with degraded conditions possible for the southern Australian
region due to coronal hole high speed wind stream induced geomagnetic
activity. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.2E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Jul
Speed: 332 km/sec Density: 14.0 p/cc Temp: 31300 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of SWS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list