[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 06 July 22 issued 2330 UT on 06 Jul 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jul 7 09:30:47 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 JULY 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 07 JULY - 09 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Jul: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Jul: 115/66
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Jul 08 Jul 09 Jul
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 120/72 120/72 130/84
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 06-Jul was at the R0 level,
with no significant flaring. There are currently five numbered
sunspot regions on the solar disk. AR3053 (N16E66, beta) and
AR3052 (N17E46, beta) and AR3051 (N28E04, beta) have shown slight
growth. Other numbered regions are stable or decaying. A new
sunspot region region located around N17W34 of beta complexity
has developed, and has shown slight growth. Solar activity is
expected to be at R0 to R1 levels on 07-09 Jul. No Earth-directed
CMEs were observed. A faint northwest CME was observed in STEREO-A
and LASCO imagery visible from 06/0209UT but is considered a
farside event and not geoeffective. The solar wind speed on 06-Jul
was at near background levels with a declining trend, and is
currently near 320 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field
strength (IMF, Bt) was 8 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +4 to -6 nT. An isolated coronal hole seen in
the northern hemisphere has continued to decrease in surface
area and is currently located around N30W40. The anticipated
increase in solar wind speed due to coronal hole effects has
yet to occur, however is still possible over 07-09 Jul.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Jul: G0
Estimated Indices 06 Jul : A K
Australian Region 1 00210100
Darwin 2 11210101
Learmonth 2 01211100
Alice Springs 1 00200100
Gingin 1 10110100
Canberra 0 00100100
Hobart 0 00100100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Jul :
Macquarie Island 0 00020000
Casey 3 11211210
Mawson 6 31122121
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 16
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 1000 1122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Jul 18 G0 with a slight chance of G1
08 Jul 12 G0 with a slight chance of G1
09 Jul 5 G0
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 32 was issued on 3 July and
is current for 6-8 Jul. G0 conditions were observed in both the
Australian and Antarctic regions on UT day 06-Jul. G0 geomagnetic
conditions are expected in the Australian region over 07-09 Jul,
with a slight chance of G1 from 07-Jul due to coronal hole high
speed wind stream effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Jul Fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Jul Normal Normal-fair Fair
08 Jul Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
09 Jul Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
over 07-09 Jul, with degraded HF conditions possible for to high
latitudes, due to coronal hole high speed wind stream induced
geomagnetic activity. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Jul 45
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 60
Jul 65
Aug 67
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Jul 50 Near predicted monthly values
08 Jul 55 Depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
09 Jul 60 Depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 51 was issued on 5
July and is current for 5-7 Jul. Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs)
on UT day 05-Jul were near predicted monthly values, with mild
depressions observed at some sites during local night hours.
Spread-F was observed at most Australian regions during local
night hours. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values
over 07-09 Jul, with degraded conditions possible for the southern
Australian region due to coronal hole high speed wind stream
induced geomagnetic activity. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.5E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Jul
Speed: 376 km/sec Density: 5.5 p/cc Temp: 42200 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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