[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 11 July 22 issued 2330 UT on 11 Jul 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jul 12 09:30:51 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 JULY 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 12 JULY - 14 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Jul: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.3 10/2343UT possible lower West Pacific
M1.1 0919UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Jul: 161/115
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Jul 13 Jul 14 Jul
Activity R1, chance of R2 R1, chance of R2 R1, chance of R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 160/114 165/119 165/119
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 11-Jul reached R1 level, with
a long duration M1.1 flare occurring at 0920UT from AR3056 (S19E61,
beta). There are currently 7 numbered sunspots on the solar disk.
AR3053 (N13W03, beta) has shown decay in its trailer and intermediate
spots while the leader spot is unstable. AR3055(S16E07, beta)
and AR3056 have shown spot growth. All other regions are stable
or soon to rotate off the solar disk. Solar activity is expected
to be at the R1 level over 12-14 Jul, with a slight chance of
R2. A narrow west-directed CME was first observed at 11/1248UT
in LASCO and STEREO-A imagery, but is not considered to be geoeffective.
No other CMEs were observed. A prominence eruption can be seen
in GOES imagery at 0654UT on the northwest limb, and a second
large prominence eruption can be seen at 1233UT from the west
limb. There are several large filaments on the solar disk. One
is roughly 40 degrees long and stretches approximately from S48W02
to S24W34 and will continue to be in a geoeffective location
over the coming days, to be monitored for potential eruptions.
A coronal hole currently around S03W25 is expected to influence
the solar wind speed in the coming days. The solar wind speed
on 11-Jul ranged between 319-401 km/s and is currently near 350
km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt)
was 17 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +4
to -11 nT. Bz was intermittently southward between 1210-1350
UT. There was a weak shock in the solar wind at 1625UT, with
a subsequent period of southward Bz during 1625-1835UT. The anticipated
increase in solar wind speed due to coronal hole effects has
yet to occur, however is still possible over 12-14 Jul. There
is a slight chance of an increase in the solar wind speed on
UT day 12-Jul due to a possible weak impact from a CME first
observed on 08-Jul.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Jul: G1
Estimated Indices 11 Jul : A K
Australian Region 6 11122231
Darwin 5 11121231
Learmonth 7 11121241
Alice Springs 5 11121231
Gingin 8 10022342
Canberra 5 01022231
Hobart 4 00012231
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Jul :
Macquarie Island 6 00003241
Casey 8 21122241
Mawson 42 21221485
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 7 1122 3212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Jul 14 G0, slight chance of G1
13 Jul 15 G0
14 Jul 12 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region over UT day 11-Jul. Mostly G0 conditions were observed
in the Antarctic region, with an isolated period of G4 in Mawson.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to mildly increase from 12-Jul
due to the onset of an equatorial hole high speed wind stream.
There is a slight chance of mildly disturbed geomagnetic conditions
due to a possible weak impact from a CME first observed on 08-Jul.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Jul Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event. Very mild proton of 1PFU enhancement observed at
11/0255UT.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
13 Jul Normal Normal-fair Fair
14 Jul Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
over 12-14 Jul. Mildly degraded conditions possible in mid-high
latitudes over 13-14 Jul. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Jul 67
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 50% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 60
Jul 65
Aug 67
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Jul 65 Near predicted monthly values
13 Jul 65 Near predicted monthly values
14 Jul 65 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 11-Jul were
generally near predicted monthly values. Spread-F was observed
at most sites during local nighttime hours. Strong enhancement
was observed at the Cocos islands during the day. MUFs are expected
to be near predicted monthly values over 12-14 Jul, with mildly
degraded conditions possible for the southern Australian region
during local night hours. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 9.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B9.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Jul
Speed: 371 km/sec Density: 6.3 p/cc Temp: 69500 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of SWS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list