[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 03 July 22 issued 2330 UT on 03 Jul 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jul 4 09:30:54 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 JULY 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 04 JULY - 06 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Jul: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Jul: 102/50
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Jul 05 Jul 06 Jul
Activity R0 R0 R0
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 112/63 112/63
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 03-Jul was at the R0 level,
with no significant flaring activity. There are currently three
spotted regions on the solar disk, with region AR3040
rotating off disk. Remaining on disk regions are considered insignificant
and all regions currently exhibit a low flare probability with
AR3040 producing a minor C3 flare at 03/1954UT. Solar activity
is expected to be at the R0 level over 04-06 Jul. In US GONG
Halpha imagery, a small solar filament lifted off the solar disk,
located at S45E05, from 03/0100UT. No Earth-directed CMEs have
been observed, with a narrow westward CME observed in LASCO C2
and C3 imagery at around 03/0400UT, which doesnt seem location
correlated to the filament eruption, and is currently considered
farside. An isolated coronal hole is visible in SDO imagery now
transiting the solar central meridian, which in SDO 193 imagery
appears to be decreasing in area as it crosses solar central
meridian. The solar wind speed on 03-Jul ranged between 298 to
374 km/s, The peak total interplanetary magnetic field strength
(IMF, Bt) was 16 nT, and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range
was +12 to -5nT. The solar wind speed is expected to mostly remain
at near background levels over 04-05 Jul, with a slight chance
for solar wind parameters to become enhanced over the period
04 Jul due to CME activity on 29 Jun. The isolated coronal hole
is expected to increase solar wind speed from late 06-07 Jul.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Jul: G0
Estimated Indices 03 Jul : A K
Australian Region 5 21122122
Darwin 7 21222123
Learmonth 7 21222132
Alice Springs 6 20122123
Gingin 5 21111032
Canberra 3 10111022
Hobart 3 10111022
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Jul :
Macquarie Island - --------
Casey 3 20000032
Mawson 25 32211174
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 17
Planetary 22 5543 3223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Jul 14 G0, slight chance of G1
05 Jul 8 G0
06 Jul 5 G0
COMMENT: G0 conditions were observed in the Australian region.
Mostly G0 conditions observed in the Antarctic region, with an
isolated G3 period at Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions are mostly
expected in the Australian region over 04-06 Jul. There is a
slight chance for G1 conditions on 04 Jul due to the possible
arrival of recent CME, which is now looking less likely. Geomagnetic
activity is expected to increase from late 06 to 07 Jul due to
a coronal hole solar wind stream.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Jul Normal Fair-normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
05 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
06 Jul Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
over 04-06 Jul. Degraded HF conditions may be then be experienced
for mid to high latitudes, due to anticipated coronal hole wind
stream induced geomagnetic activity late 6-7 Jul.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Jul 44
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 60
Jul 65
Aug 67
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Jul 45 Depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
05 Jul 55 Near predicted monthly values
06 Jul 55 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 03-Jul were
15-20% depressed to near predicted monthly values. Degraded HF
conditions were observed during local night hours, with spread
F was observed overnight at several sites to varying degrees.
Frequent sporadic E was also observed in regional ionograms.
MUFs for today are generally expected to be slightly depressed
to near predicted monthly values. Forecast possible degraded
HF conditions over 04-05 Jul, due to the possible arrival of
recent CMEs, are now looking less likely. However, degraded conditions
for southern Australian region are expected from around 7-8 Jul
due to anticipated coronal hole wind stream induced geomagnetic
activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.1E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Jul
Speed: 332 km/sec Density: 8.1 p/cc Temp: 20100 K Bz: -5 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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