[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 02 July 22 issued 2330 UT on 02 Jul 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jul 3 09:30:46 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 JULY 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 03 JULY - 05 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Jul: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Jul: 100/48
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Jul 04 Jul 05 Jul
Activity R0 R0 R0
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 102/50 108/58 110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 02-Jul was at the R0 level,
with no significant flaring activity. There are currently four
spotted regions on the solar disk, though with very small spots
emerging and decaying. Three of which are more persistent sunspot
regions, though the western most region AR3040 (S14W61) will
soon rotate off disk. None of these regions are considered significant
and all regions currently exhibit a low flare probability and
have been relatively quiet. Solar activity is expected to be
at the R0 level over 03-05 Jul. In US GONG imagery a solar filament
located at N30E20, lifted off the solar disk at around 01/2000UT.
Another solar filament is reported to have erupted at S38E00
from 0230UT 02 Jul. Associated CMEs appear narrow and not Earth
directed, to the north-east and south respectively. No other
Earth-directed CMEs have been observed. An isolated coronal hole
is visible in SDO imagery just crossing the solar central meridian.
The solar wind speed on 02-Jul ranged between 304 to 364 km/s,
the peak total interplanetary magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt)
was 14 nT, and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +7
to -13nT, with an interval of southward IMF conditions 01/2100
to 02/1030UT. Reviewing the solar wind data there is possibly
evident a partial small shock signature around 0900UT on 01 Jul,
possibly a weak CME transient signature, if so most likely from
one of the recent small filament eruptions. The solar wind speed
is expected to mostly remain at near background levels over 03-05
Jul, with a chance for solar wind parameters to become enhanced
over the period 03-04 Jul due to CME activity on 29 Jun. The
isolated coronal hole is expected to increase solar wind speed
after 7 Jul.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Jul: G0, isolated
G1
Estimated Indices 02 Jul : A K
Australian Region 13 33332412
Darwin 11 33321412
Learmonth 15 33332512
Alice Springs 11 23332401
Gingin 13 33332412
Canberra 11 23332401
Hobart 12 33332401
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Jul :
Macquarie Island 29 3454----
Casey 9 43221301
Mawson 25 56433221
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 18
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 6 2000 1233
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Jul 16 G0, chance of G1
04 Jul 14 G0, chance of G1
05 Jul 8 G0
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 29 was issued on 2 July and
is current for 3 Jul only. G0, with an isolated G1 period of
geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian region.
G1-G2 periods were observed in the Antarctic region on UT day
02-Jul. Unexpected mildly disturbed conditions were observed
on 02 Jul. G0 geomagnetic conditions are mostly expected in the
Australian region over 03-05 Jul. There is a chance for G1 conditions
on 03-04 Jul due to the possible arrival of recent CMEs.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Jul Normal Fair-normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Jul Normal Normal-fair Fair
04 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
05 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
over 03-05 Jul, with a chance of degraded conditions for middle
to high latitudes on 03-Jul due to the possible arrival of recent
CMEs.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Jul 78
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Initially near predicted monthly values then enhanced 15%.
Southern Australian region MUFs briefly depressed 15% after local dawn.
Hobart 20-30% depressed after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 60
Jul 65
Aug 67
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Jul 50 Depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
04 Jul 65 Near predicted monthly values
05 Jul 65 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 02-Jul were
initially near predicted monthly values then becoming unexpectedly
enhanced by 15-25%. Spread F was observed overnight for southern
region sites in association with unexpected geomagnetic activity.
MUFs are generally expected to be near predicted monthly values,
southern Australian regional MUFs are likely to be briefly initially
depressed 15-20% then recover. Northern Australian regional MUFs
are 15% depressed to near predicted monthly values after local
dawn. Further degraded conditions are possible for the southern
Australian region during 04-05 Jul in association with the chance
of an increase in geomagnetic activity induced from recent CMEs.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:17%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Jul
Speed: 344 km/sec Density: 5.2 p/cc Temp: 40800 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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