[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 04 July 22 issued 2330 UT on 04 Jul 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jul 5 09:30:50 EST 2022


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 JULY 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 05 JULY - 07 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Jul:  R0

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Jul: 104/53


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             05 Jul               06 Jul               07 Jul
Activity     R0, slight chance R1 R0, slight chance R1 R0, slight chance R1
Fadeouts     Possible             Possible             Possible
10.7cm/SSN   106/55               106/55               110/60

COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 04-Jul was at the R0 level, 
with three C-class flares produced by AR3050 (N17E29, beta), 
the largest of which was a C5.1 at 04/1333UT. There are currently 
six numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk, the most complex 
of which is AR3047 (S20W19, gamma), which was shown some growth. 
AR3051 (N26E28, beta) has also exhibited growth, but all other 
sunspot regions are either stable or in decay. A new unnumbered 
region (N15E70, alpha) has recently rotated onto the solar disk, 
and is stable. Solar activity is expected to be at the R0 level 
over 05-07 Jul, with a slight chance of R1. No Earth-directed 
CMEs have been observed in the available coronagraph imagery. 
An isolated coronal hole in the northern hemisphere currently 
extends from (approximately) E10 to W35, and is decreasing in 
latitudinal extent. The solar wind speed on 04-Jul was slightly 
elevated due to the impact of two CMEs first observed on 29-Jun, 
with a weak 11 nT shock observed at 04/1421UT. The solar wind 
speed ranged between 340-485 km/s, and is currently near 430 
km/s. The peak total interplanetary magnetic field strength (IMF, 
Bt) was 20 nT, and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was 
+18 to -13 nT. Bz was southward for two distinct periods, between 
0041-0408UT and 1405-1910UT respectively. The solar wind speed 
is expected to remain slightly elevated over 05-07 Jul, with 
further enhancements expected from 06-Jul due to coronal hole 
high speed wind stream effects.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Jul: G1

Estimated Indices 04 Jul : A   K           
   Australian Region      17   34343332
      Darwin              15   34342322
      Learmonth           22   34353433
      Alice Springs       15   34333332
      Gingin              15   33333---
      Canberra            16   24334332
      Hobart              15   24234323    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Jul :
      Macquarie Island    26   26335432
      Casey               13   33232333
      Mawson              47   55531475

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Jul : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               3   (Quiet)
      Canberra             4   (Quiet)
      Hobart               6   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg        16
           Planetary             20                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             10   3012 1134     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
05 Jul    10    G0
06 Jul    16    G0, chance of G1
07 Jul    12    G0, chance of G1

COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 32 was issued on 3 July and 
is current for 6-8 Jul. G0-G1 geomagnetic conditions were observed 
in the Australian region on UT day 04-Jul, due to the arrival 
of two CMEs first observed on 29-Jun. G0-G3 conditions were observed 
in the Antarctic region. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected 
in the Australian region over 05-07 Jul, with a chance of G1 
from 06-Jul due to coronal hole high speed wind stream effects.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Jul      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair           

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
06 Jul      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair
07 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected 
over 05-07 Jul. Degraded HF conditions are possible from 06-Jul 
for mid to high latitudes, due to coronal hole high speed wind 
stream induced geomagnetic activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
04 Jul    53

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jun      60
Jul      65
Aug      67

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
05 Jul    60    Near predicted monthly values
06 Jul    60    Near predicted monthly values
07 Jul    60    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 04-Jul were 
near predicted monthly values, with depressions of 15-30% observed 
at some sites due to CME impacts. Spread-F observed during local 
night hours at Darwin, Brisbane and Canberra, and frequent sporadic-E 
was observed at Darwin and Cocos Island. MUFs are expected to 
be near predicted monthly values over 05-07 Jul, with degraded 
conditions for the southern Australian region possible from 06-Jul 
due to coronal hole high speed wind stream induced geomagnetic 
activity.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 03 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.1E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  3.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.9

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Jul
Speed: 315 km/sec  Density:   26.7 p/cc  Temp:    22800 K  Bz:   5 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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