[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 28 January 22 issued 2331 UT on 28 Jan 2022
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jan 29 10:31:31 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 JANUARY 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 29 JANUARY - 31 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Jan: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Jan: 113/64
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Jan 30 Jan 31 Jan
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible None expected
10.7cm/SSN 114/65 118/70 118/70
COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 28 January. There are
currently five numbered regions on the visible disc. Region 2936(N17E23)
remains the largest and most complex, has increased in area and
magnetic complexity and produced several C-class flares. All
other regions remained relatively stable. Solar activity is expected
to be low on 29-31 January, with a chance of M-class flares from
region 2936. Two small filaments were observed to lift off from
the southwest quadrant in H-alpha imagery starting at approximately
28/0235 UT. No associated CME signature was observed. There were
no other Earth directed CMEs seen in the available images. On
UT day 28 January,the solar wind speed remained moderately enhanced,
between 410- 540 km/s. The total IMF(Bt) range was 1-9 nT and
the north-south IMF (Bz) range was +/-5 nT with a moderate southward
excursion up to -8 nT ~28/2030UT. The mildly disturbed solar
wind speed is due to coronal hole effects. The solar wind speed
is expected to remain mildly elevated for the next three UT days,29-31
January due to another small equatorial coronal hole. In addition,
there may be further enhancements due to mild CME impacts.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 28 Jan : A K
Australian Region 4 21112022
Cocos Island 3 11111012
Darwin 4 21112012
Townsville 5 21112023
Learmonth 7 21123023
Alice Springs 4 21112012
Gingin 6 21122123
Canberra 4 11112022
Hobart 4 22112012
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Jan :
Macquarie Island 7 11224112
Casey 14 34432123
Mawson 21 33323236
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 14 (Quiet)
Hobart 66 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6 1011 2132
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Jan 15 Quiet to unsettled with possible active periods.
30 Jan 12 Quiet to unsettled with possible active periods.
31 Jan 7 Mostly quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were
quiet to unsettled on UT day 28 January. Quiet to active levels
were observed in Antarctica. The observed mildly disturbed conditions
were due to the coronal hole effects. Quiet to unsettled conditions
are expected on 29-31 January with possible active periods on
29-30, due to coronal hole effects and possible mild CME impacts.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Jan Normal Normal Normal
30 Jan Normal Normal Normal
31 Jan Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected on 29-31 January.
There is a chance for shortwave fadeouts on daylight HF circuits
over the next few days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Jan 71
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 34
Jan 36
Feb 39
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Jan 60 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
30 Jan 60 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
31 Jan 60 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 9 was issued on 28
January and is current for 29-30 Jan. Australian regional maximum
usable frequencies (MUFs) were near predicted monthly to enhanced
values on 28 January. MUFs are expected to be near predicted
monthly to enhanced values on 29-31 January. There is a chance
for shortwave fadeouts on daylight HF circuits over the next
few days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Jan
Speed: 460 km/sec Density: 8.2 p/cc Temp: 142000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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