[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 27 January 22 issued 2331 UT on 27 Jan 2022

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jan 28 10:31:05 EST 2022


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 JANUARY 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 28 JANUARY - 30 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Jan:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Jan: 107/57


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             28 Jan             29 Jan             30 Jan
Activity     Low                Low                Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   105/54             105/54             105/54

COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 27 January with two 
weak C-class flares. There are six numbered regions on the visible 
disc. Solar activity is expected to be low on 28-30 January, 
with a chance of more C-class flares. There were no Earth directed 
coronal mass ejections seen in the available images. The 25 January 
CME could cause a glancing blow at earth on early UT day 29 January. 
During the last 24 hours, the solar wind speed was at moderately 
elevated levels, in the range of 430km/s to 500 km/s. The mildly 
disturbed solar wind speed was caused by coronal hole effects. 
The peak total IMF range was 2 nT to 10 nT. The north-south IMF 
(Bz) range was +/-5 nT. The solar wind is expected to remain 
mildly elevated for the next three days (28-30 January) as another 
small equatorial coronal hole is expected to reach geoeffective 
location soon. In addition, there may be small enhancements associated 
with possible arrival of the 25 January CME.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 27 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region       6   12113122
      Cocos Island         5   11112231
      Darwin               6   12113122
      Townsville           8   12223132
      Learmonth            8   22113232
      Alice Springs        5   11113122
      Gingin               3   111121--
      Canberra             6   11213122
      Hobart               6   12213122    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Jan :
      Macquarie Island     6   11214011
      Casey               19   45432232
      Mawson              21   23223364

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Jan : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               6   (Quiet)
      Canberra             6   (Quiet)
      Hobart              19   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8   2123 2332     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
28 Jan     8    Quiet to Unsettled
29 Jan    10    Quiet to Unsettled
30 Jan     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were 
quiet to unsettled on UT day 27 January. Quiet to minor storm 
levels were observed in Antarctica. The observed mildly disturbed 
conditions were due to the coronal hole effects. Quiet to unsettled 
conditions are expected on 28-30 January, due to coronal hole 
effects and possible glancing blow on early UT day 29 January 
from the 25 January CME. Isolated active conditions are possible 
on all three days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
29 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
30 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected on 28-30 January. 
Low chance of shortwave fadeouts over the next three days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
27 Jan    68

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Dec      34
Jan      36
Feb      39

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
28 Jan    60    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
29 Jan    60    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
30 Jan    60    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 8 was issued on 26 
January and is current for 26-28 Jan. Australian regional maximum 
usable frequencies (MUFs) were near predicted monthly to enhanced 
values on 27 January due to high levels of solar ionising flux. 
MUFs are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly to enhanced 
values on 28-30 January.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 26 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.5

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Jan
Speed: 473 km/sec  Density:    8.1 p/cc  Temp:   192000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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