[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 27 January 22 issued 2331 UT on 27 Jan 2022
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jan 28 10:31:05 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 JANUARY 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 28 JANUARY - 30 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Jan: 107/57
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Jan 29 Jan 30 Jan
Activity Low Low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 105/54 105/54
COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 27 January with two
weak C-class flares. There are six numbered regions on the visible
disc. Solar activity is expected to be low on 28-30 January,
with a chance of more C-class flares. There were no Earth directed
coronal mass ejections seen in the available images. The 25 January
CME could cause a glancing blow at earth on early UT day 29 January.
During the last 24 hours, the solar wind speed was at moderately
elevated levels, in the range of 430km/s to 500 km/s. The mildly
disturbed solar wind speed was caused by coronal hole effects.
The peak total IMF range was 2 nT to 10 nT. The north-south IMF
(Bz) range was +/-5 nT. The solar wind is expected to remain
mildly elevated for the next three days (28-30 January) as another
small equatorial coronal hole is expected to reach geoeffective
location soon. In addition, there may be small enhancements associated
with possible arrival of the 25 January CME.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 27 Jan : A K
Australian Region 6 12113122
Cocos Island 5 11112231
Darwin 6 12113122
Townsville 8 12223132
Learmonth 8 22113232
Alice Springs 5 11113122
Gingin 3 111121--
Canberra 6 11213122
Hobart 6 12213122
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Jan :
Macquarie Island 6 11214011
Casey 19 45432232
Mawson 21 23223364
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 6 (Quiet)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Hobart 19 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8 2123 2332
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
29 Jan 10 Quiet to Unsettled
30 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were
quiet to unsettled on UT day 27 January. Quiet to minor storm
levels were observed in Antarctica. The observed mildly disturbed
conditions were due to the coronal hole effects. Quiet to unsettled
conditions are expected on 28-30 January, due to coronal hole
effects and possible glancing blow on early UT day 29 January
from the 25 January CME. Isolated active conditions are possible
on all three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
29 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
30 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected on 28-30 January.
Low chance of shortwave fadeouts over the next three days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Jan 68
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 34
Jan 36
Feb 39
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Jan 60 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
29 Jan 60 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
30 Jan 60 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 8 was issued on 26
January and is current for 26-28 Jan. Australian regional maximum
usable frequencies (MUFs) were near predicted monthly to enhanced
values on 27 January due to high levels of solar ionising flux.
MUFs are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly to enhanced
values on 28-30 January.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Jan
Speed: 473 km/sec Density: 8.1 p/cc Temp: 192000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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