[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 26 January 22 issued 2331 UT on 26 Jan 2022

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jan 27 10:31:47 EST 2022


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 JANUARY 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 27 JANUARY - 29 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Jan:  Low

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  C9.0 25/2349UT  probable   lower  West Pacific

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Jan: 102/50


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             27 Jan             28 Jan             29 Jan
Activity     Low                Low                Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   105/54             105/54             105/54

COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 26 January with a few 
C-class flares. The strongest C7.2 occurred at 26/0732 UT. There 
are five numbered regions on the visible disc. Solar activity 
is expected to be low on 27-29 January, with a chance of more 
C-class flares and a remote chance of M-class flare. There were 
no Earth directed coronal mass ejections seen in the available 
images. The 25 January CME could cause a glancing blow at earth 
on early UT day 29 January. During the last 24 hours, the solar 
wind speed was at moderately elevated levels, in the range of 
420km/s to 520 km/s. The mildly disturbed solar wind speed was 
caused by coronal hole effects. The peak total IMF range was 
5 nT to 8 nT. The north-south IMF (Bz) range was +/-5 nT. The 
solar wind is expected to begin to settle today, 27 January, 
as the current coronal hole effect wanes.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 26 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region       7   22232212
      Cocos Island         4   21221111
      Darwin               7   22232212
      Townsville           7   22232212
      Learmonth            9   22232223
      Alice Springs        7   22232212
      Gingin               8   21232223
      Canberra             7   22232112
      Hobart               8   22332212    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Jan :
      Macquarie Island    12   22144321
      Casey               23   45542223
      Mawson              23   23343336

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Jan : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             13     1223 3


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
27 Jan     8    Quiet to Unsettled
28 Jan     5    Quiet
29 Jan    10    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were 
quiet to unsettled on UT day 26 January. Quiet to minor storm 
levels were observed in Antarctica. The observed mildly disturbed 
conditions were due to the coronal hole effects. Quiet to unsettled 
conditions are expected on 27 January, as the coronal hole effects 
begin to wane. Isolated active periods are possible today. Mostly 
quiet conditions are expected on 28 January. Mild disturbances 
are expected on 29 January due to another coronal hole reaching 
geoeffective location combined with the glancing blow from the 
25 January CME.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Jan      Fair           Fair           Fair           

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
28 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
29 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected during 27-29 
January. Shortwave fadeouts are possible over the next three 
days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
26 Jan    72

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day.
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Dec      34
Jan      36
Feb      39

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
27 Jan    60    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
28 Jan    60    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
29 Jan    60    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 8 was issued on 26 
January and is current for 26-28 Jan. Australian regional maximum 
usable frequencies (MUFs) were near predicted monthly to enhanced 
values on 26 January due to high levels of solar ionising flux. 
MUFs are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly to enhanced 
values on 27-29 January.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 25 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.90E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.3

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Jan
Speed: 373 km/sec  Density:   12.5 p/cc  Temp:   132000 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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