[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 25 January 22 issued 2330 UT on 25 Jan 2022
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jan 26 10:30:58 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 JANUARY 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 26 JANUARY - 28 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Jan: 101/49
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Jan 27 Jan 28 Jan
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 100/48 105/54
COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 25 January with three
weak C-class flares. There are three numbered regions on the
visible disc. Solar activity is expected to be very low on 26-28
January, with a chance of more C-class flares. A CME first observed
in the LASCO C2 imagery starting at 25/0300 UTC possibly associated
with a small disappearing solar filament (GONG Halpha Learmonth)
and B8.3 flare (AR 2935 at 23/0204 UT). Our initial model runs
indicate that this CME could cause a mild impact at earth on
early UT day 29 January. More updates on this event will be provided
later. During the last 24 hours, the solar wind speed increased
gradually from 300 km/s to 500 km/s, in response to mainly coronal
hole effects. The peak total IMF range was 5 nT to 13 nT. The
north-south IMF (Bz) range was +/-10 nT. The solar wind is expected
to remain enhanced today (UT day 26 January) in response to the
coronal hole effects. The solar wind is expected to begin to
settle on 27 January.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 25 Jan : A K
Australian Region 12 23333322
Cocos Island 9 12333222
Darwin 12 23333322
Townsville 14 13443322
Learmonth 13 22343332
Alice Springs 13 13343322
Gingin 12 22333332
Canberra 11 13333322
Hobart 13 23433322
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Jan :
Macquarie Island 16 12253432
Casey 21 25533332
Mawson 23 34433435
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Hobart 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 2 0000 1012
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Jan 10 Quiet to Unsettled
27 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
28 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were
quiet to unsettled on UT day 25 January. Quiet to minor storm
levels were observed in Antarctica. The observed mildly disturbed
conditions were due to perturbations in solar wind IMF conditions
and enhancements in solar wind speed due to the coronal hole
effects. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 26-28
January. Isolated active periods are possible on 26 January due
to coronal hole effects. Mostly quiet conditions are expected
on 27 and most of 28 January.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
27 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
28 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected during 26-28
January.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Jan 66
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 34
Jan 36
Feb 39
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Jan 60 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
27 Jan 60 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
28 Jan 60 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Australian regional maximum usable frequencies (MUFs)
were near predicted monthly to mildly enhanced values on 25 January.
MUFs are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values
on 26-28 January.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.00E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:19%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Jan
Speed: 310 km/sec Density: 12.6 p/cc Temp: 21300 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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