[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 24 January 22 issued 2331 UT on 24 Jan 2022

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jan 25 10:31:03 EST 2022 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 JANUARY 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 25 JANUARY - 27 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Jan:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Jan:  95/41


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             25 Jan             26 Jan             27 Jan
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    95/41              95/41              95/41

COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 24 January with two 
C1 flares. There are two numbered regions on the visible disc. 
Spot region 2934 (S23E10) is stable and quiet. A yet to be numbered 
region is located near N13E79, there is a developing spot group 
near N32E06 and there has been intermittent spot development 
and decay in the northern hemisphere. Solar activity is expected 
to be very low to low on 25-27 January. There were no Earth directed 
coronal mass ejections seen in available images. Ambient solar 
wind conditions were observed on 24 January with a peak speed 
of 338 km/s. The peak total IMF was 7 nT until 1710 UT when a 
small step occurred, with the total IMF peaking at 11 nT after 
that. The north-south IMF (Bz) range was +/-6 nT. Coronal hole 
effects are expected to produce mildly enhanced solar wind conditions 
25-26 January. There is a slight chance of a mild CME impact 
in the second half of 25 January. The solar wind is expected 
to begin to settle on 27 January.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Jan: Quiet

Estimated Indices 24 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11102121
      Cocos Island         3   01211111
      Darwin               3   11102121
      Townsville           3   11102121
      Learmonth            3   01102221
      Alice Springs        2   00102110
      Gingin               2   10101121
      Canberra             2   11201011
      Hobart               2   11201110    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Jan :
      Macquarie Island     1   01100010
      Casey               14   24522122
      Mawson              11   22212125

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Jan : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              7   2322 2111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
25 Jan    11    Quiet to Active
26 Jan    10    Quiet to Active
27 Jan     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were 
quiet on UT day 24 January. Quiet to minor storm levels were 
observed in Antarctica. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected 
25-27 January. Isolated active periods are possible on 25-26 
January due to coronal hole effects and a possible mild coronal 
mass ejection impact. Mostly quiet conditions are expected on 
27 January.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
26 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
27 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected during 25-27 
January.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
24 Jan    60

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Dec      34
Jan      36
Feb      39

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
25 Jan    45    Near predicted monthly values
26 Jan    45    Near predicted monthly values
27 Jan    45    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Australian regional maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) 
were near predicted monthly values on 24 January with enhancements 
at lower latitudes. Sporadic E was observed at Hobart 08-16 UT, 
Norfolk Is. 02-10 UT, and Canberra throughout the period. MUFs 
are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values on 25-27 
January.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 23 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.1E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  5.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.40E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:17%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A9.8

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Jan
Speed: 362 km/sec  Density:    5.2 p/cc  Temp:    52600 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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