[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 23 January 22 issued 2331 UT on 23 Jan 2022

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jan 24 10:31:04 EST 2022 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 JANUARY 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 24 JANUARY - 26 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Jan:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Jan:  94/40


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             24 Jan             25 Jan             26 Jan
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    90/34              90/34              88/32

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 23 January. There 
are three numbered regions on the visible disc, two of them spot 
groups. Spotted regions 2933 (S22W85) and 2934 (S23E23) are stable 
and quiet with alpha magnetic configuration. Solar activity is 
expected to be very low on 24-26 January. There were no Earth 
directed coronal mass ejections seen in available images. Ambient 
solar wind conditions were observed on 23 January with a peak 
speed of 423 km/s, peak total IMF of 6 nT and a north-south IMF 
(Bz) range of +/-5 nT. Coronal hole effects and possible weak 
coronal mass ejection effects are expected to produce mildly 
enhanced solar wind conditions 24-25 January.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Jan: Quiet

Estimated Indices 23 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   22222100
      Cocos Island         2   21111100
      Darwin               3   12121101
      Townsville           5   12222111
      Learmonth            4   22222100
      Alice Springs        2   11121100
      Gingin               4   22221100
      Canberra             3   12222000
      Hobart               5   22222101    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Jan :
      Macquarie Island     5   12133100
      Casey               15   33542211
      Mawson              19   55323321

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Jan : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              9   2311---- 


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
24 Jan    12    Quiet to Unsettled with possible isolated Active 
                periods
25 Jan    11    Quiet to Unsettled with possible isolated Active 
                periods
26 Jan     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 5 was issued on 22 January and 
is current for 22-24 Jan. Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian 
region were quiet on UT day 23 January. Quiet to minor storm 
levels were observed in Antarctica. Quiet to unsettled conditions 
are expected 24-26 January. Isolated active periods are possible 
on 24-25 January due to coronal hole and possible coronal mass 
ejection effects.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
25 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
26 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected during 24-26 
January.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
23 Jan    51

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 40% during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Dec      34
Jan      36
Feb      39

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
24 Jan    45    Near predicted monthly values
25 Jan    40    Near predicted monthly values
26 Jan    40    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Australian regional maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) 
were near predicted monthly values to enhanced on 23 January. 
Sporadic E was observed at Hobart, Canberra and Norfolk Is. throughout 
the period. Spread F was observed at Perth 15-21 UT. MUFs are 
expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values on 24-26 
January.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 22 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.6E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  7.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.2

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Jan
Speed: 438 km/sec  Density:    5.3 p/cc  Temp:    95800 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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