[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 22 January 22 issued 2331 UT on 22 Jan 2022

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jan 23 10:31:31 EST 2022 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 JANUARY 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 23 JANUARY - 25 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Jan:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Jan:  95/41


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             23 Jan             24 Jan             25 Jan
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    93/38              89/33              89/33

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 22 January. There 
are three numbered regions on the visible disk, two of them spot 
groups. Spotted regions 2933 (S22W71) and 2934 (S23E37) are stable 
and quiet with alpha magnetic configuration. Solar activity is 
expected to be very low on 23-25 January. A filament erupted 
in the northeast quadrant commencing ~0648 UT resulting in a 
slow CME first observed at 1048 UT. This CME is not likely to 
be geoeffective. The solar wind speed peaked at 480 km/s at the 
start of 22 January and is now near 380 km/s. The peak total 
IMF was 5 nT and the north-south IMF (Bz) range was +2/-4 nT, 
mostly southward. Mild CME impacts along with coronal hole effects 
are expected to produce minor to moderately enhanced solar wind 
conditions 23-25 January.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Jan: Quiet

Estimated Indices 22 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   11112212
      Cocos Island         5   21112212
      Darwin               4   11112212
      Townsville           5   12112212
      Learmonth            8   21113323
      Alice Springs        4   11102212
      Gingin               7   21113322
      Canberra             4   11112212
      Hobart               4   12112112    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Jan :
      Macquarie Island     8   13124211
      Casey               20   45423233
      Mawson              31   54433455

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Jan : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5   0001 1223     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
23 Jan    13    Quiet to Active
24 Jan    12    Quiet to Active
25 Jan    10    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 5 was issued on 22 January and 
is current for 22-24 Jan. Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian 
region were quiet to unsettled on UT day 22 January. Quiet to 
minor storm levels were observed in Antarctica. Mild CME impacts 
along with coronal hole effects are likely to cause disturbances 
23-24 January. Quiet to active conditions are expected with a 
chance of isolated minor storm periods. Mostly quiet to unsettled 
conditions on 25 January expected.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
24 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
25 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected during 23-25 
January.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
22 Jan    65

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Dec      34
Jan      36
Feb      39

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
23 Jan    50    Near predicted monthly values
24 Jan    40    Near predicted monthly values
25 Jan    50    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Australian regional maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) 
were near predicted monthly values to enhanced on 22 January. 
Sporadic E was observed at Hobart and Canberra throughout 22 
January and occasionally at other mid-latitude locations. MUFs 
are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values to mildly 
enhanced on 23-25 January.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 21 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.3E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:13%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.4

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Jan
Speed: 447 km/sec  Density:    5.1 p/cc  Temp:   138000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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