[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 19 January 22 issued 2331 UT on 19 Jan 2022
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jan 20 10:31:20 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 JANUARY 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 20 JANUARY - 22 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Jan: 105/54
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Jan 21 Jan 22 Jan
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 102/50 98/45 94/40
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 19 January. There
are currently four numbered regions on the visible disc. Region
2930 shows some development while all other regions are either
stable or decaying. Solar activity is expected to be very low
to low for 20-22 January with a slight chance of M-class flares.
A filament was observed to lift off from the southwest quadrant
in SDO imagery starting at approximately 19/0238 UT. A subsequent
CME was observed in the STEREO A imagery around 19/0559UT. Our
initial model run (with low confidence) indicates that this CME
might cause a glancing blow arriving early in UT day 23 January(23/05UT).
No other Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available images.
On UT day 19 January, the solar wind speed range was between
580-680 km/s, declining in trend. The total IMF (Bt) peaked at
9 nT and the north-south IMF (Bz) reached -9 nT early UT day.
The solar wind is expected to continue decreasing over 20-22
January however, there is the chance conditions could become
disturbed due to CMEs impacts.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Jan: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 19 Jan : A K
Australian Region 12 34333121
Cocos Island 10 33323121
Darwin 11 33333121
Townsville 12 34333111
Learmonth 12 33333222
Alice Springs 10 33333111
Gingin 15 44333222
Canberra 12 34333111
Hobart 12 34333111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Jan :
Macquarie Island 21 55344111
Casey 41 57643222
Mawson 54 67543455
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Jan :
Darwin 6 (Quiet)
Townsville 20 (Quiet)
Learmonth 20 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 14 (Quiet)
Gingin 57 (Unsettled)
Canberra 80 (Active)
Hobart 81 (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 17
Planetary 23
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 14 4332 2332
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Jan 15 Quiet to Active
21 Jan 12 Quiet to unsettled with possible active periods.
22 Jan 12 Quiet to unsettled with possible active periods.
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 4 was issued on 19 January and
is current for 19-21 Jan. Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian
region were quiet to Active on UT day 19 January. Isolated major
to severe storm conditions were observed in Antarctica. Mostly
quiet to unsettled conditions are expected for 20-22 January
with a chance of active levels should recent CMEs arrive.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
21 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
22 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal to fair HF conditions are expected during
20-22 January. Degraded HF conditions may be experienced at times
during local night hours. There is a slight chance for shortwave
fadeouts on daylight HF circuits over the next few days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Jan 20
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 35% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 34
Jan 36
Feb 39
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Jan 20 Near predicted monthly values
21 Jan 20 Near predicted monthly values
22 Jan 20 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 6 was issued on 19 January
and is current for 19-20 Jan. Australian regional maximum usable
frequencies (MUFs) were near predicted monthly values to moderately
depressed on 19 January. Occasional sporadic E observed at some
stations. Near predicted monthly values with some mild depressions
are possible on 20-22 January. There is a slight chance for shortwave
fadeouts on daylight HF circuits over the next few days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.3E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:13%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Jan
Speed: 578 km/sec Density: 8.7 p/cc Temp: 404000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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