[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 19 January 22 issued 2331 UT on 19 Jan 2022

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jan 20 10:31:20 EST 2022


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 JANUARY 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 20 JANUARY - 22 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Jan:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Jan: 105/54


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             20 Jan             21 Jan             22 Jan
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   102/50              98/45              94/40

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 19 January. There 
are currently four numbered regions on the visible disc. Region 
2930 shows some development while all other regions are either 
stable or decaying. Solar activity is expected to be very low 
to low for 20-22 January with a slight chance of M-class flares. 
A filament was observed to lift off from the southwest quadrant 
in SDO imagery starting at approximately 19/0238 UT. A subsequent 
CME was observed in the STEREO A imagery around 19/0559UT. Our 
initial model run (with low confidence) indicates that this CME 
might cause a glancing blow arriving early in UT day 23 January(23/05UT). 
No other Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available images. 
On UT day 19 January, the solar wind speed range was between 
580-680 km/s, declining in trend. The total IMF (Bt) peaked at 
9 nT and the north-south IMF (Bz) reached -9 nT early UT day. 
The solar wind is expected to continue decreasing over 20-22 
January however, there is the chance conditions could become 
disturbed due to CMEs impacts.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Jan: Quiet to Active

Estimated Indices 19 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region      12   34333121
      Cocos Island        10   33323121
      Darwin              11   33333121
      Townsville          12   34333111
      Learmonth           12   33333222
      Alice Springs       10   33333111
      Gingin              15   44333222
      Canberra            12   34333111
      Hobart              12   34333111    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Jan :
      Macquarie Island    21   55344111
      Casey               41   57643222
      Mawson              54   67543455

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Jan : 
      Darwin               6   (Quiet)
      Townsville          20   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           20   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs       14   (Quiet)
      Gingin              57   (Unsettled)
      Canberra            80   (Active)
      Hobart              81   (Minor storm)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg        17
           Planetary             23                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             14   4332 2332     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
20 Jan    15    Quiet to Active
21 Jan    12    Quiet to unsettled with possible active periods.
22 Jan    12    Quiet to unsettled with possible active periods.

COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 4 was issued on 19 January and 
is current for 19-21 Jan. Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian 
region were quiet to Active on UT day 19 January. Isolated major 
to severe storm conditions were observed in Antarctica. Mostly 
quiet to unsettled conditions are expected for 20-22 January 
with a chance of active levels should recent CMEs arrive.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Jan      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Jan      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
21 Jan      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
22 Jan      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal to fair HF conditions are expected during 
20-22 January. Degraded HF conditions may be experienced at times 
during local night hours. There is a slight chance for shortwave 
fadeouts on daylight HF circuits over the next few days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
19 Jan    20

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 35% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Dec      34
Jan      36
Feb      39

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
20 Jan    20    Near predicted monthly values
21 Jan    20    Near predicted monthly values
22 Jan    20    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 6 was issued on 19 January 
and is current for 19-20 Jan. Australian regional maximum usable 
frequencies (MUFs) were near predicted monthly values to moderately 
depressed on 19 January. Occasional sporadic E observed at some 
stations. Near predicted monthly values with some mild depressions 
are possible on 20-22 January. There is a slight chance for shortwave 
fadeouts on daylight HF circuits over the next few days.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 18 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.3E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:13%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.5

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Jan
Speed: 578 km/sec  Density:    8.7 p/cc  Temp:   404000 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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