[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 18 January 22 issued 2332 UT on 18 Jan 2022
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jan 19 10:32:25 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 JANUARY 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 19 JANUARY - 21 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Jan: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.4 1749UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Jan: 115/66
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Jan 20 Jan 21 Jan
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 115/66 110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity was moderate on UT day 18 January with
an M1.5 flare at 1744 UT from region 2929. Region 2930 produced
the largest of the two C flares, a C5.7 at 1951 UT. There are
eight numbered regions on the visible disc. Region 2929 (N08W53)
shows intermediate spots decaying, region 2930 (N21W47) shows
consolidation of the leader and trailer spots. Other regions
are decaying or stable. Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate for 19-21 January. A coronal mass ejection (CME)
likely associated with the M flare from region 2929 was observed
in STEREO images at 18/1823 UT and initial analysis indicates
may just glance Earth on 22 January. The solar wind speed range
was 537-684 km/s on 18 January. The total IMF (Bt) peaked at
8 nT and the north-south IMF (Bz) range was +4/-5 nT. The solar
wind is expected to decline somewhat over 19 January however,
there is the chance conditions could become further disturbed
from late 19 January due to the CME on the 16th.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 18 Jan : A K
Australian Region 10 32223322
Cocos Island 9 32223321
Darwin 8 22213322
Townsville 11 33223322
Learmonth 13 32224422
Alice Springs 10 32223322
Gingin 11 32223332
Canberra 11 33313322
Hobart 12 33323322
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Jan :
Macquarie Island 17 33334432
Casey 39 66544433
Mawson 51 64343764
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 28 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 18
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7 3002 2223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Jan 11 Quiet to Active. Possible isolated Minor Storm
period late
20 Jan 16 Quiet to Unsettled. Possible isolated Active
to Minor Storm periods
21 Jan 9 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were
mostly quiet to unsettled on UT day 18 January. Quiet to major
storm conditions were observed in Antarctica. Mostly quiet to
active conditions are expected for 19 January. Minor storm levels
are possible late on 19 or more likely in the first half of 20
January if the 16 January CME arrives. Otherwise mostly quiet
to unsettled conditions are expected on 20-21 January with a
chance of the 17 January CME arrival late on 21st causing some
minor activity.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
20 Jan Normal Normal-fair Fair
21 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed on 18 January.
Normal conditions are likely on 19 and 21 January with possible
degradations on 20 January.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Jan 49
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values with depressions
to 25% 06-08 and 12 UT. Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed to 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values otherwise.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 34
Jan 36
Feb 39
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Jan 50 Near predicted monthly values
20 Jan 35 Near predicted monthly values
21 Jan 40 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 4 was issued on 16
January and is current for 17-19 Jan. Australian regional maximum
usable frequencies (MUFs) were near predicted monthly values
to enhanced on 18 January. Occasional strong sporadic E observed
at mid latitudes. MUFs are expected to be mostly near predicted
monthly values to mildly enhanced on 19 January. Near predicted
monthly values with some mild depressions are possible on 20
and 21 January if the predicted geomagnetic activity occurs.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Jan
Speed: 547 km/sec Density: 10.4 p/cc Temp: 373000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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