[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 17 January 22 issued 2347 UT on 17 Jan 2022
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jan 18 10:47:35 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 JANUARY 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 18 JANUARY - 20 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Jan: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Jan: 114/65
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Jan 19 Jan 20 Jan
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 114/65 110/60 108/58
COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 17 January with three
C2 flares from region 2930. There are eight numbered regions
on the visible disc. Region 2930 (N21W40) has displayed intermediate
spot development, region 2933 (S22W07) has grown in area and
other regions appear stable. Solar activity is expected to be
low with a low chance of moderate activity for 18-20 January.
A coronal mass ejection (CME) likely associated with a flare
from region 2930 was observed at 17/1448 UT and may impact Earth
on 21 January although most of the plasma is expected to be directed
northwest of Earth. The CME first observed at 16/2048 UT has
been analysed as also possibly impacting Earth in the first half
20 January. The solar wind speed range was 478-616 km/s on 17
January. The total IMF (Bt) peaked at 8 nT and the north-south
IMF (Bz) range was +6/-7 nT. Conditions have become mildly enhanced
since ~2100 UT. The solar wind is expected to remain elevated
over 18 January with a chance the 14 January CME could still
arrive. Conditions may become elevated from late on 19 January
with the arrival of the CME from 16 January.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 17 Jan : A K
Australian Region 9 32222322
Cocos Island 5 22111311
Darwin 5 21112222
Townsville 8 32122322
Learmonth 10 32223322
Alice Springs 7 21212322
Gingin 10 32223322
Canberra 9 32222322
Hobart 9 22223322
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Jan :
Macquarie Island 11 21124422
Casey 30 55632333
Mawson 26 42233555
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Hobart 25 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 11
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 14 3312 3243
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Jan 14 Unsettled to Active
19 Jan 11 Quiet to Unsettled
20 Jan 16 Quiet to Minor Storm
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 3 was issued on 16 January and
is current for 17-18 Jan. Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian
region were quiet to unsettled on UT day 17 January. Quiet to
major storm conditions were observed in Antarctica. Predominantly
unsettled conditions are expected for 18 January, with active
periods possible. There is a small chance of minor storm periods
due to a weak coronal mass ejection from 14 January. Mostly quiet
to unsettled conditions are expected on 19 Jan. Active to minor
storm levels are likely starting either late on 19 or in first
half of 20 January if the 16 January CME arrives. Otherwise mostly
quiet conditions are expected on the 20th.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Jan Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
19 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
20 Jan Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Normal to mildly degraded HF conditions were observed
in the first part of UT day 17 January. Normal to mildly degraded
conditions are likely on 18 to 19 January.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Jan 36
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 34
Jan 36
Feb 39
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Jan 40 Near predicted monthly values
19 Jan 50 Near predicted monthly values
20 Jan 25 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 4 was issued on 16
January and is current for 17-19 Jan. SWS HF Communications Warning
5 was issued on 16 January and is current for 17-18 Jan. Australian
regional maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were near predicted
monthly values with occasional brief depressions to 35% mostly
during local day. MUFs are expected to be mostly near predicted
monthly values on 18-19 January with depressions on 20 January.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.80E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Jan
Speed: 555 km/sec Density: 10.7 p/cc Temp: 357000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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