[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 20 January 22 issued 2331 UT on 20 Jan 2022
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jan 21 10:31:04 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 JANUARY 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 21 JANUARY - 23 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Jan: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M5.5 0601UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Jan: 99/46
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Jan 22 Jan 23 Jan
Activity Low to moderate Low Low
Fadeouts Possible None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 93/38 91/36
COMMENT: Solar activity was Moderate on UT day 20 January with
an M5.5 flare from region 2929 (N08W81) at 20/0601UT. This event
was associated with a CME that is not expected to have an earth
directed component. The M5.5 flare was also associated with a
minor increase in proton levels, exceeding the S1 threshold at
20/0740UT. There are currently five numbered regions on the visible
disk. Region 2929 is the largest, currently approaching the western
limb. The second largest region 2930 (N21W74) is also approaching
the western limb. All other regions, including newly numbered
region 2934(S23E64), are small and remained inactive. Solar activity
is expected to be low on 21-23 January with a chance of an isolated
M-class flare over the next 24 hours. A filament was observed
to lift off from the southwest quadrant in SDO imagery starting
at approximately 20/08UT. A subsequent CME was observed in STEREO
and LASCO imagery around 20/0912UT. Our model run indicates that
this CME might cause a glancing blow arriving early in UT day
24 January(24/05UT). On UT day 20 January, the solar wind speed
remained enhanced, between 440-520 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) was
around 5 nT and the north-south IMF (Bz) was mostly northward.
The solar wind is expected to continue decreasing over 21-23
January however, there is the chance conditions could become
disturbed due to CMEs impacts.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 20 Jan : A K
Australian Region 2 21100101
Cocos Island 1 20000100
Darwin 3 22100111
Townsville 5 22300112
Learmonth 5 32211102
Alice Springs 2 21100101
Gingin 2 21110101
Canberra 2 21100001
Hobart 2 21100001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Jan :
Macquarie Island 1 21100000
Casey 10 44321011
Mawson 12 52211114
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 4 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 2 (Quiet)
Gingin 6 (Quiet)
Canberra 9 (Quiet)
Hobart 17 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 19 5432 3113
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Jan 10 Quiet to Unsettled.
22 Jan 12 Quiet to Unsettled with possible active periods.
23 Jan 12 Quiet to Unsettled with possible active periods.
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 4 was issued on 19 January and
is current for 19-21 Jan. Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian
region were mostly quiet on UT day 20 January. Isolated minor
storm conditions were observed in Antarctica. Mostly quiet to
unsettled conditions are expected for 21-23 January with a chance
of active levels should recent CMEs arrive.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 0755UT 20/01, Ended at 1515UT 20/01
and, 100MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 0820UT 20/01, Ended at 1045UT 20/01
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Jan Normal Normal Normal
22 Jan Normal Normal Normal
23 Jan Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected during 21-23
January. There is a chance for a shortwave fadeout on daylight
HF circuits today, 21 January.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Jan 51
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 34
Jan 36
Feb 39
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Jan 40 Near predicted monthly values
22 Jan 40 Near predicted monthly values
23 Jan 40 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 7 was issued on 20
January and is current for 21 Jan only. Australian regional maximum
usable frequencies (MUFs) were near predicted monthly values
on 20 January. Occasional sporadic E observed at some stations.
MUFs are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values
on 21-23 January. There is a slight chance for a shortwave fadeout
on daylight HF circuits, today 21 January.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Jan
Speed: 618 km/sec Density: 6.6 p/cc Temp: 120000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of SWS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list