[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 06 January 22 issued 2331 UT on 06 Jan 2022
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jan 7 10:31:21 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 JANUARY 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 07 JANUARY - 09 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Jan: 94/40
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 94/40 96/43 96/43
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for 06Jan. There are currently
two regions on the visible disk. Region 2924 (S33E29) is a region
of interest and has increased in spot number and size since last
report and since 18UT GOES x-ray flux average levels have increased
to almost C level. Region 2925 (S65E62) remains unchanged. There
were no Earth directed CMEs observed in LASCO imagery. The solar
wind speed has remained at ambient levels of ~350km/s over the
UT day. The north-south component of the IMF (Bz) was predominantly
northward for the majority of the UT day reaching a a maximum
of 5nT, with only brief southward excursions between 1330UT-2000UT
reaching -3nT. Near background solar wind conditions are expected
for 07Jan with chance of elevated solar wind speeds late in the
UT day extending into 08Jan-09Jan due to coronal hole effects.
Solar activity is expected to be Very Low to Low with possible
C-class flux levels and chance of M-class flares due to recent
developments in region 2924 for 07Jan-09Jan.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 06 Jan : A K
Australian Region 1 11100001
Cocos Island 0 01000000
Darwin 1 10100001
Townsville 2 11110011
Learmonth 1 11110000
Alice Springs 0 00100001
Gingin 0 10100000
Canberra 1 11100001
Hobart 0 00100000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Jan :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 9 34321011
Mawson 3 22010112
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 2 0100 1000
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
08 Jan 14 Unsettled to Active
09 Jan 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions for the Australian region were
Quiet for 06Jan. Unsettled to Active conditions were observed
for Antarctic regions. Quiet to possible Unsettled/Active conditions
are expected on 07 January due to chance of increased solar wind
parameters due to coronal hole activity. Unsettled to Active
levels possible for 08Jan and mostly Quiet conditions expected
09Jan.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
08 Jan Normal Normal-fair Normal-poor
09 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal across all latitudes
with occasional depressions for mid to high latitudes. Similar
conditions expected for 07Jan with the chance of enhanced periods.
Depressed MUFs possible for mid to high latitudes 08Jan-09Jan
due to expected elevated geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Jan 26
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 34
Jan 36
Feb 39
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Jan 40 Near predicted monthly values
08 Jan 20 Near predicted monthly values
09 Jan 15 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region for 06Jan were near predicted
monthly values with some depressions of 15%-20% for Northern
AUS and Southern AUS/NZ regions. Chance of similar conditions
for 07Jan with periods of possible enhanced ionospheric support.
For 08Jan-09Jan depressed MUFs of 10%-30% possible for Southern
AUS/NZ regions and likely disturbed ionospheric support for Antarctic
regions 08Jan-09Jan due to increased geomagnetic activity over
this time.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.8E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A8.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Jan
Speed: 407 km/sec Density: 4.4 p/cc Temp: 106000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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