[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 05 January 22 issued 2337 UT on 05 Jan 2022

Thu Jan 6 10:37:55 EST 2022

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 JANUARY 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 06 JANUARY - 08 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Jan:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Jan:  84/26

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             06 Jan             07 Jan             08 Jan
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    84/26              88/32              92/37

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for 05Jan. There are currently 
two regions on the visible disk, Region 2924 (S32E39) did not 
exhibit any growth over the last 24 hours and newly numbered 
region 2925 (S35E73 c/s/o beta-gamma) which appears to be much 
larger in spot size than 2924. There were no Earth directed CMEs 
observed in LASCO imagery. The solar wind speed ranged between 
364km/s and 450km/s and is currently 424km/s at the time of this 
report. The north-south component of the IMF (Bz) ranged between 
+6nT and -5nT with only brief sustained southward excursions 
between 1130UT-1530UT. Near background solar wind conditions 
are expected for the next 24-36 hours. The solar wind is expected 
to be influenced by coronal hole effects from midway through 
the UT day 07Jan to 09Jan. Solar activity is expected to be Very 
Low with a slight chance of C-class flares for the next 3 days.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Jan: Quiet

Estimated Indices 05 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11111201
      Cocos Island         1   11101100
      Darwin               3   11111201
      Townsville           4   11111212
      Learmonth            2   01101200
      Alice Springs        2   01001201
      Gingin               2   11101200
      Canberra             3   11111201
      Hobart               3   02111201    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Jan :
      Macquarie Island     0   01000100
      Casey               12   34422212
      Mawson               7   23213211

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Jan : 
      Darwin              13   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5   3302 1001     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
06 Jan     7    Quiet
07 Jan    12    Unsettled
08 Jan     9    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions for the Australian region were 
Quiet for 05Jan. Unsettled to Active conditions were observed 
for Antarctic regions. Mostly Quiet conditions are expected on 
06 January. Activity may increase to Unsettled to Active levels 
over 07Jan-08Jan due to the expected arrival of a coronal hole 
high speed solar wind stream.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Jan      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Jan      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
07 Jan      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-poor
08 Jan      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-poor

COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal across all latitudes 
with occasional depressions for mid to high latitudes. Similar 
conditions expected for 06Jan. Depressed MUFs possible for mid 
to high latitudes 07Jan-08Jan due to expected elevated geomagnetic 
activity.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
05 Jan    18

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Dec      34
Jan      36
Feb      39

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
06 Jan    20    Near predicted monthly values
07 Jan    15    Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
08 Jan    25    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region for 05Jan were near predicted 
monthly values with some depressions of 15% for Northern AUS 
and Southern AUS/NZ regions. Similar conditions are expected 
for 06Jan-08Jan with periods of depressed MUFs of 10%-30% for 
Southern AUS/NZ regions and likely disturbed ionospheric support 
for 07Jan-08Jan due to increased geomagnetic activity over this 
time.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 04 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.3E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.50E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.4

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Jan
Speed: 441 km/sec  Density:    4.9 p/cc  Temp:   118000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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