[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 07 January 22 issued 2331 UT on 07 Jan 2022
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jan 8 10:31:13 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 JANUARY 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 08 JANUARY - 10 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Jan: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Jan: 107/57
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 112/63 112/63
COMMENT: Solar activity was low on 7-Jan UT. There are currently
two regions on the visible disk. Region 2924 (S32E11) has increased
in size and produced two C-class flares, while region 2925 (S35E45)
continues to produce B-class flares. Large regions in both the
north and south hemispheres are due to rotate onto the visible
disk during the next two days. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.
The solar wind speed has declined further to ~300km/s. The north-south
(Bz) component of the IMF ranged between +4 nT and -2 nT and
was mostly northwards. Solar activity is expected to be low to
moderate for 8-10 Jan. Solar wind speed is likely to increase
during 9-10 Jan due to coronal hole effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Jan: Quiet
Estimated Indices 07 Jan : A K
Australian Region 0 00100000
Cocos Island 0 01000000
Darwin 0 10000000
Townsville 1 11100011
Learmonth 0 01100000
Alice Springs 0 00000000
Gingin 0 00000000
Canberra 0 00100000
Hobart 0 00110000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Jan :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 6 23311011
Mawson 1 11100101
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 1 0000 0000
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Jan 5 Quiet
09 Jan 14 Quiet to Active
10 Jan 14 Quiet to Active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions for the Australian region were
quiet on 7-Jan. Some unsettled periods were observed in Antarctica.
Mostly quiet conditions are expected on 8-Jan. Conditions might
become unsettled to active during 9-10 Jan due to the expected
arrival of a coronal hole high speed solar wind stream.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Jan Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Jan Normal Normal Normal
09 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
10 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal, with isolated depressions
for low latitudes. Mostly normal conditions are expected for
8-Jan. Depressed MUFs are possible for high latitudes during
9-10 Jan due to likely elevated geomagnetic activity. Short-wave
fadeouts are possible 8-10 Jan.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Jan 21
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
No data available during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 34
Jan 36
Feb 39
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Jan 17 Near predicted monthly values
09 Jan 10 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
10 Jan 10 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region for 7-Jan were near predicted
monthly values with some depressions in the north. Mostly normal
conditions are expected for 8-Jan. For 9-10 Jan, depressed MUFs
are possible in southern AUS/NZ regions and disturbed ionospheric
support likely in Antarctic regions due to an expected increase
in geomagnetic activity. Short-wave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Jan
Speed: 381 km/sec Density: 2.4 p/cc Temp: 52800 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
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