[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 02 January 22 issued 2331 UT on 02 Jan 2022
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jan 3 10:31:12 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 JANUARY 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 03 JANUARY - 05 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Jan: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Jan: 89/33
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 88/32 88/32 85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 02 January with a C1
flare at 0012 UT from AR2918 which has rotated off the visible
disc. There are now two spot groups on the disc, AR2916 (S16W72)
and AR2922 (S17W00), both appear stable. Solar activity is expected
to be very low to low on 03 to 05 January with a slight chance
of low level M flares on 03 to 04 January. H-alpha images show
a filament disappearance at 1425 UT centred at S10W30 but there
does not appear to be a CME associated with the event. There
were no Earth directed CMEs observed in available images. On
02 January, the solar wind speed range was 467 to 623 km/s. The
peak total IMF was 8 nT and the north-south IMF (Bz) range was
+5/-7 nT. Solar wind parameters are expected to decline to near
background levels on 03 January. Nominal conditions are expected
on 04 to 05 January.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Jan: Quiet to unsettled
Estimated Indices 02 Jan : A K
Australian Region 5 21111222
Cocos Island 4 21111212
Darwin 4 21111212
Townsville 5 12112222
Learmonth 7 21111323
Alice Springs 6 21111322
Gingin 7 21111323
Canberra 5 22111222
Hobart 5 22111222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Jan :
Macquarie Island 5 22112221
Casey 22 46322333
Mawson 21 43222355
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 9 2322 2221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
04 Jan 7 Quiet
05 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: On UT day 02 January, geomagnetic conditions in the
Australian region were quiet to unsettled. Quiet to major storm
conditions were observed in the Antarctic region. Quiet conditions
are expected on 03 to 05 January with some unsettled periods
possible on 03 and 05 January.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
04 Jan Normal Normal Normal
05 Jan Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected 03 to 05 January.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Jan 41
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 34
Jan 36
Feb 39
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Jan 40 Near predicted monthly values
04 Jan 35 Near predicted monthly values
05 Jan 30 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 1 was issued on 1
January and is current for 2-3 Jan. MUFs in the Australian region
on UT day 02 January were near predicted monthly values to 20%
enhanced with some daytime depressions to 25%. Sporadic E was
observed at Canberra and Hobart during 16-23 UT. MUFs are expected
to be near predicted monthly values on 03 to 05 January with
some depressions to 20%. There is a slight chance for an isolated
minor fadeout on 03 to 04 January.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.5E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Jan
Speed: 536 km/sec Density: 9.7 p/cc Temp: 464000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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