[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 03 January 22 issued 2331 UT on 03 Jan 2022
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jan 4 10:31:10 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 JANUARY 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 04 JANUARY - 06 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Jan: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Jan: 84/26
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Jan 05 Jan 06 Jan
Activity Very low to low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 84/26 82/23 80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 03 January. Spot
region AR2916 is rotating off the visible disc and AR2922 (S17W14)
has decayed to plage. There appears to be spot development near
S30E64. Solar activity is expected to be very low to low on 04
to 06 January. There were no Earth directed CMEs observed in
available images. On 03 January, the solar wind speed range was
462 to 622 km/s. The peak total IMF was 9 nT and the north-south
IMF (Bz) range was +7/-6 nT with an extended period of southward
IMF between 0252 to 0935 UT. Solar wind parameters are expected
to decline to background levels over 04 January. Near background
conditions are expected on 05 to 06 January.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Jan: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 03 Jan : A K
Australian Region 9 23242211
Cocos Island 6 22232111
Darwin 8 23232211
Townsville 10 23243211
Learmonth 11 23243212
Alice Springs 9 23242211
Gingin 9 23232222
Canberra 7 13232111
Hobart 10 23342211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Jan :
Macquarie Island 10 12351111
Casey 21 46342212
Mawson 26 35342255
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Jan :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 4 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 3 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 7 (Quiet)
Hobart 16 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 13
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 6 2111 1223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
05 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
06 Jan 7 Quiet
COMMENT: On UT day 03 January, geomagnetic conditions in the
Australian region were quiet to active. Quiet to major storm
conditions were observed in the Antarctic region. Quiet to unsettled
conditions are expected on 04 to 06 January.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
05 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
06 Jan Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions with some mild depressions
possible on 04 to 06 January.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Jan 39
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly with some depressions to 20%.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 34
Jan 36
Feb 39
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Jan 30 Near predicted monthly values
05 Jan 30 Near predicted monthly values
06 Jan 25 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 03 January were
mostly near predicted monthly values. Sporadic E was observed
at Canberra 00-03, 20-23 UT, Hobart 00-05, 21-23 UT and Norfolk
06-09, 17-22 UT. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly
values on 04 to 06 January with some depressions to 20% as background
solar flux levels decline.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.3E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Jan
Speed: 524 km/sec Density: 12.4 p/cc Temp: 444000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
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