[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 01 January 22 issued 2330 UT on 01 Jan 2022

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jan 2 10:30:59 EST 2022 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 JANUARY 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 02 JANUARY - 04 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Jan:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.0    0732UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Jan:  94/40


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             02 Jan             03 Jan             04 Jan
Activity     Low to moderate    Low                Low
Fadeouts     Possible           None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    94/40              92/37              90/34

COMMENT: Solar activity was moderate on UT day 01 January with 
an M1.1 flare at 0730 UT from AR2918. Regions 2918 (N20W81), 
2919 (S12W25) appear to have decayed to plage and spot regions 
2916 (S16W60), 2922 (S17E13) and 2923 (S29W62) appear stable. 
Solar activity is expected to be low on 02 to 04 January, with 
a chance of an isolated low level M class flare event on 02 January. 
There were no Earth directed CMEs observed in available images. 
On 01 January, the solar wind speed range was 395 to 599 km/s 
and is currently around 540 km/s. Peak total IMF was 10 nT and 
the north-south IMF (Bz) range was +9/-8 nT. The solar wind speed 
is expected to decline over 02 to 03 January as the coronal hole 
effects wane.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 01 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region       8   23311222
      Cocos Island         4   22210111
      Darwin               6   23211122
      Townsville           8   23311222
      Learmonth            8   32321222
      Alice Springs        6   22311221
      Gingin               7   32211222
      Canberra             6   23211221
      Hobart               7   23311221    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Jan :
      Macquarie Island     7   23321120
      Casey               25   55542232
      Mawson              34   46322563

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Jan : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             13                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              3   0000 1211     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
02 Jan    10    Quiet to Unsettled with a chance of an isolated 
                Active period.
03 Jan     7    Quiet
04 Jan     7    Quiet

COMMENT: On UT day 01 January, geomagnetic conditions in the 
Australian region were quiet to unsettled. Quiet to major storm 
conditions were observed in the Antarctic region. Quiet to unsettled 
conditions are expected on 02 January with a chance of an isolated 
active period. Mostly quiet conditions are likely on 03 to 04 
January.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
03 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
04 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected 02 to 04 January.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
01 Jan    58

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Dec      34
Jan      36
Feb      39

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
02 Jan    45    Near predicted monthly values
03 Jan    40    Near predicted monthly values
04 Jan    35    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 1 was issued on 1 
January and is current for 2-3 Jan. MUFs in the Australian region 
on UT day 01 January were near predicted monthly values to 25% 
enhanced. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values 
on 02 to 04 January. There remains a chance for isolated minor 
fadeouts on 02 January.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 31 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.50E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.6

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 Dec
Speed: 433 km/sec  Density:    7.2 p/cc  Temp:    93100 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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