[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 31 December 21 issued 2331 UT on 31 Dec 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jan 1 10:31:02 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/31 DECEMBER 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 01 JANUARY - 03 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Dec: Low
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
C9.0 0658UT probable lower Mid East/Indian
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Dec: 102/50
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Jan 02 Jan 03 Jan
Activity Low to moderate Low Low
Fadeouts Possible None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 102/50 102/50 98/45
COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 31 December with five
C-class flares from AR2918, the largest a C9.8 at 0656 UT. Regions
2918 (N20W66), 2919 (S11W11) and 2916 (S16W49) have decayed.
Two new regions appeared and are developing but remain small
at this stage, AR2922 (S17E26) and unnumbered region near S29W51.
Solar activity is expected to be low 01 to 03 January, with a
chance of an isolated low level M class flare event from AR2916
(S16W49) on 01 January. A prominence eruption on the west limb
observed in Learmonth H-alpha and SDO images caused a slow CME
observed around 0800 UT in LASCO C2 images. It is likely the
CME will just miss Earth, however, any impact would be likely
to occur on 05 January. On 31 December, the solar wind speed
range was 398 to a peak of 468 km/s near the start of the day.
Peak total IMF was 8 nT and the north-south IMF (Bz) range was
+5/-4 nT. The solar wind is expected to become mildly enhanced
on 01 January or early 02 January due to coronal hole effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 31 Dec : A K
Australian Region 3 11102202
Cocos Island 2 11011201
Darwin 5 11111213
Townsville 4 12102112
Learmonth 3 11102202
Alice Springs 3 11102202
Gingin 3 11102202
Canberra 3 11102202
Hobart 4 11212202
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 31 Dec :
Macquarie Island 2 01111201
Casey 16 35422322
Mawson 7 12212322
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 6 2112 2111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Jan 11 Quiet to Unsettled with isolated Active conditions
possible
02 Jan 11 Quiet to Unsettled with isolated Active conditions
possible
03 Jan 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: On UT day 31 December, geomagnetic conditions in the
Australian region were quiet. Quiet to minor storm conditions
were observed in the Antarctic region. Mostly quiet conditions
should precede a coronal hole wind stream that is expected to
take effect on 01 January or the first half of 02 January. Quiet
to unsettled conditions with the possibility of isolated active
periods are then expected. Mostly quiet to unsettled conditions
are likely on 03 January.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
02 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
03 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected 01 to 03 January.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
31 Dec 46
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 3
Dec 33
Jan 36
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Jan 40 Near predicted monthly values
02 Jan 40 Near predicted monthly values
03 Jan 35 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 44 was issued on 29
December and is current for 30 Dec to 1 Jan. MUFs in the Australian
region on UT day 31 December were near predicted monthly values
to 25% enhanced. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly
values to about 15% enhanced on 01 to 03 January. There is a
chance for isolated minor fadeouts on 01 January.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Dec
Speed: 440 km/sec Density: 8.5 p/cc Temp: 245000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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