[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 09 February 22 issued 2331 UT on 09 Feb 2022

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Feb 10 10:31:12 EST 2022


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 FEBRUARY 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 10 FEBRUARY - 12 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** RED **     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Feb:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Feb: 126/79


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             10 Feb             11 Feb             12 Feb
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   120/72             118/70             110/60

COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 9-Feb, with C-class 
flares from regions 2939 (S20W55) and 2941 (N22W02). A westward 
CME first observed in STEREO imagery at 09/1938 looks unlikely 
to be geoeffective, but needs further analysis. There are four 
numbered regions on the disc. Solar activity is expected to be 
low to moderate for 10-12 Feb. The solar wind speed declined 
to around 380 km/s before a weak shock at around 09/2010 likely 
due to the 6-Feb CME arrival. It subsequently peaked around 445 
km/s. The peak total interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) strength 
before the shock was was 4 nT, and 8 nT afterwards. The north-south 
IMF (Bz) range was -2 nT to +4 nT before the shock and -4 nT 
to +3 nT afterwards. The solar wind is expected to be disturbed 
during 10-12 Feb due to CME and anticipated coronal hole effects.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Feb: Quiet

Estimated Indices 09 Feb : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   10000012
      Darwin               2   10010022
      Townsville           3   10010013
      Learmonth            1   10000012
      Alice Springs        1   00000012
      Gingin               1   10000012
      Canberra             0   00000000
      Hobart               0   10000001    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Feb :
      Macquarie Island     0   00000001
      Casey                9   23332022
      Mawson               9   13111134

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Feb : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5   1011 2221     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
10 Feb    25    Active to Minor Storm
11 Feb    15    Unsettled to Active
12 Feb    20    Active to Minor Storm

COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 9 was issued on 7 February and 
is current for 9-10 Feb. Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian 
region were mostly quiet on UT day 9-Feb. Conditions were mostly 
quiet to unsettled at southern high latitudes. Global geomagnetic 
conditions are expected to reach active to minor storm levels 
during the next 3 days due to the recent CME arrival and anticipated 
coronal hole effects from late 12-Feb.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
11 Feb      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
12 Feb      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mildly degraded conditions are possible during on 11-12 
Feb due to expected geomagnetic activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
09 Feb    69

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jan      46
Feb      38
Mar      41

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
10 Feb    60    Near predicted monthly values
11 Feb    20    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%
12 Feb    30    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                15%

COMMENT: Frequencies were near predicted monthly values to enhanced 
on 9-Feb. Similar conditions are expected for 10 Feb, with mild 
depressions likely on 11-12 Feb due to expected geomagnetic activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 08 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.6E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.60E+08   (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:24%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.7

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Feb
Speed: 439 km/sec  Density:    4.9 p/cc  Temp:   133000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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