[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 08 February 22 issued 2331 UT on 08 Feb 2022

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Feb 9 10:31:21 EST 2022 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 FEBRUARY 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 09 FEBRUARY - 11 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Feb:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Feb: 123/76


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             09 Feb             10 Feb             11 Feb
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   122/75             120/72             110/60

COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 8-Feb, with C-class 
flares from region 2939 (S16W39). There are five numbered regions 
on the disc. Region 2942 (S11W90) will rotate off the disc today. 
Solar activity is expected to be low on 9-11 Feb with a small 
chance of M-class flares. The solar wind speed has declined to 
around 420 km/s. The peak total interplanetary magnetic field 
(IMF) strength was 5 nT. The north-south IMF (Bz) range was +/-4 
nT. The solar wind speed is expected to continue declining until 
CME impacts during the second half of 9-Feb cause another disturbance.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Feb: Quiet

Estimated Indices 08 Feb : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   10002211
      Darwin               2   10002211
      Townsville           4   11012221
      Learmonth            4   11003221
      Alice Springs        3   10002221
      Gingin               4   10003221
      Canberra             0   00001100
      Hobart               3   11012211    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Feb :
      Macquarie Island     4   01023210
      Casey               12   33323232
      Mawson              21   33113364

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Feb : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4   1112 1211     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
09 Feb    20    Quiet to minor storm
10 Feb    20    Active to Minor Storm
11 Feb    15    Unsettled to Active

COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 9 was issued on 7 February and 
is current for 9-10 Feb. Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian 
region were mostly quiet on UT day 8-Feb. Conditions were at 
quiet to major storm levels at southern high latitudes. Geomagnetic 
conditions are expected to be mostly quiet on 9-Feb until an 
expected coronal mass ejection arriving in the second half of 
9-Feb causes active to minor storm levels into 10-Feb. Conditions 
should then become less active for 11-Feb.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
10 Feb      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair
11 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Normal conditions are expected for 9 Feb, with degraded 
conditions possible at higher latitudes on 10-11 Feb as a result 
of expected geomagnetic activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
08 Feb    71

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jan      46
Feb      38
Mar      41

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
09 Feb    65    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
10 Feb    30    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                15%
11 Feb    30    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 101 to 
                15%

COMMENT: Frequencies were near predicted monthly values to enhanced 
on 8-Feb. Similar conditions are expected for 9 Feb, with mild 
depressions possible on 10-11 Feb due to expected geomagnetic 
activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 07 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.9E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.40E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:20%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B5.3

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Feb
Speed: 487 km/sec  Density:    5.7 p/cc  Temp:   226000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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