[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 10 February 22 issued 2334 UT on 10 Feb 2022
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Feb 11 10:34:36 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 FEBRUARY 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 11 FEBRUARY - 13 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Feb: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Feb: 118/70
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Feb 12 Feb 13 Feb
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 118/70 116/68 112/63
COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 10 February with C
flares from regions 2940 and 2941. There are five numbered regions
on the disc. Regions 2939 (S16W66, Cho/beta), 2940 (N18W70, Cro/beta),
2944 (S27W71, Axx/alpha) appear stable. Region 2941 (N22W14,
Eki/beta) has intermediate spot decay and 2943 (S18E25) has decayed
to plage. There are three unnumbered spot groups near S19W19,
S10E80 and S21W44. Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance of moderate activity on 11-13 February. There were no
Earth directed CMEs observed. The solar wind speed range was
385-452 km/s on 10 February. The peak total interplanetary magnetic
field (IMF) strength was 14 nT and the north-south IMF (Bz) range
was +11/-13 nT. Bz was mostly neutral until ~0430 UT, then became
mildly agitated and strengthened. Since 1315 UT, Bz has been
moderately southward. The solar wind parameters are expected
to be mildly elevated over 11 February due to the continuing
CME effects. On 12 February, recurrent coronal hole effects are
expected to elevate conditions into 13 February.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Feb: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 10 Feb : A K
Australian Region 13 22233343
Darwin 11 22223333
Townsville 13 22233343
Learmonth 18 22234444
Alice Springs 12 22233333
Gingin 16 22223345
Canberra 9 12222333
Hobart 15 22233443
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Feb :
Macquarie Island 50 12234864
Casey 27 34643334
Mawson 42 54334566
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 20 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 22
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 1000 0002
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Feb 18 Unsettled to Active. Slight chance of an isolated
minor storm period.
12 Feb 14 Unsettled to Active
13 Feb 13 Quiet to Active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were
quiet to active on UT day 10 February due to CME effects. Conditions
were at quiet to severe storm levels at southern high latitudes.
Global geomagnetic conditions are expected to be unsettled to
active on 11-12 February due to continuing CME effects and anticipated
coronal hole effects expected to commence on 12 February.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Feb Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Feb Normal Normal-fair Fair
12 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
13 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mildly degraded conditions are possible on 11 and 13
February.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Feb 74
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 46
Feb 38
Mar 41
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Feb 35 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
12 Feb 60 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
13 Feb 45 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 17 was issued on 9
February and is current for 10-12 Feb. Frequencies were near
predicted monthly values to enhanced with some depressions after
location dawn on 10 February due to elevated geomagnetic conditions.
Frequencies are expected to be near predicted monthly values
to mildly depressed on 11 February. Some mild depressions are
possible on 13 February due to expected geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.7E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.90E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:23%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Feb
Speed: 406 km/sec Density: 3.3 p/cc Temp: 93300 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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