[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 29 December 22 issued 2331 UT on 29 Dec 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Dec 30 10:31:02 EST 2022
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 DECEMBER 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 30 DECEMBER - 01 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Dec: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.2 0727UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M2.4 1833UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Dec: 163/117
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Dec 31 Dec 01 Jan
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 164/118 162/116 160/114
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 29-Dec was at the R1 level,
due to a M1.2 flare at 29/0727UT and a M2.4 flare at 29/1833UT.
Both flares originated from an active region beyond the northeastern
limb. There are currently seven numbered sunspot regions visible
on the solar disk and one unnumbered region. AR3176 (N20E24,
beta-gamma) is the most magnetically complex region and has shown
some spot development. AR3179 (N13W09, beta) recently appeared
on the solar disk and has shown spot growth. A currently unnumbered
region is visible at N31W58 (alpha) and appears stable. All other
sunspot regions are either stable or in decay. Solar activity
is expected to be at R0-R1 levels over 30-Dec to 1-Jan. No Earth-directed
CMEs have been observed. The solar wind speed on UT day 29-Dec
was elevated and stable, ranging from 400 to 505 km/s, and is
currently near 485 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field
strength (IMF, Bt) was 12 nT, and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +6 to -10 nT. Several short periods of southward
IMF conditions have been observed since 29/1030UT. The solar
wind speed may increase over 30-Dec to 1-Jan due to coronal hole
high speed wind stream effects from a northern hemisphere coronal
hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Dec: G0
Estimated Indices 29 Dec : A K
Australian Region 7 10122323
Cocos Island 5 11122222
Darwin 7 10122323
Townsville 7 20122323
Learmonth 8 11222323
Alice Springs 7 10122323
Gingin 8 10122333
Canberra 8 10223323
Hobart 9 11223323
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Dec :
Macquarie Island 13 11225422
Casey 21 34543233
Mawson 24 23344445
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Hobart 18 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 3 2110 0101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Dec 14 G0
31 Dec 10 G0
01 Jan 8 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 29-Dec. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctic region, with isolated periods of G1
observed at Casey, Mawson and Macquarie Island. G0 geomagnetic
conditions are expected over 30-Dec to 1-Jan. A western hemisphere
coronal hole, though with most of its area at higher solar latitudes,
may induce a mild increase in geomagnetic activity from 30-Dec.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
31 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
01 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions expected over 30-Dec to
1-Jan. Persistent sporadic E may cause mild degradations in HF
communication quality for mid to high latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Dec 94
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 77
Dec 70
Jan 70
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Dec 90 Near predicted monthly values
31 Dec 90 Near predicted monthly values
01 Jan 90 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region on UT day 29-Dec were near predicted monthly values to
30% enhanced during local night. Spread F was observed at Hobart
during local night. Sporadic E was observed at several middle
latitude sites. MUFs are generally expected to be near predicted
monthly values over 30-Dec to 1-Jan. Isolated minor fadeouts
are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.6E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.70E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Dec
Speed: 515 km/sec Density: 10.1 p/cc Temp: 473000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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