[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 30 December 22 issued 2330 UT on 30 Dec 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Dec 31 10:30:53 EST 2022
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 DECEMBER 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 31 DECEMBER - 02 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Dec: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.4 1528UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M3.7 1938UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Dec: 162/116
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
31 Dec 01 Jan 02 Jan
Activity R1 R1 R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 162/116 160/114 160/114
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 30-Dec was at the R1 level.
The M1.4 and M3.7 flare events were both produced by AR3176(N20E13,
beta-gamma). This region is currently the most complex on disk.
Numerous C class flares were observed, contributed by regions
AR3180(N17E69, beta) 7 C flares the largest a C9.6 at 30/1114UT,
AR3178(S04W81, alpha) 1 C flare, and from AR3169 from behind
the northwest limb, 3 C flares. Another notable solar region
AR3177(S17E44, beta) remained flare quiet. There are currently
eight numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. At
the time of issue of this report LASCO imagery was only available
up to 30/1400UT. Some on disk plasma motion was evident apparently
from AR3176 to the southwest and south of AR3179 proceeding and
following the M1.4 flare. STEREO-A imagery shows a southwest
CME(s) from 30/1723UT which may indicate partially Earth directed
CME(s). This will be confirmed as further spaced based coronagraph
imagery becomes available. An earlier minor CME is visible in
LASCO C2 from 30/1200UT directed southward out of the ecliptic
plane and at this stage could not be associated with on disk
activity. Solar activity is expected to be at the R1 level over
31-Dec to 02-Jan. The solar wind speed on UT day 30-Dec was initially
steady then increasing after 30/0930UT, ranging from 416 to 606
km/s, and is currently near 570 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 14 nT, and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +12 to -11 nT, with frequent southward fluctuations
during the UT day. The increase in solar wind speed is from a
coronal hole now located in the solar northwest quadrant. An
isolated equatorial coronal hole is also visible in the eastern
solar hemisphere. Solar region AR3165 (S22) which produced numerous
R1 flares on its previous solar disk transit may return on 31-Dec.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Dec: G1
Estimated Indices 30 Dec : A K
Australian Region 19 33335333
Cocos Island 14 33333332
Darwin 15 33334233
Townsville 22 43345243
Learmonth 22 43345333
Alice Springs 19 33335333
Gingin 20 43335333
Canberra 16 33334333
Hobart 22 34345333
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Dec :
Macquarie Island 33 43456443
Casey 51 67545443
Mawson 60 65556655
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 12 (Quiet)
Canberra 24 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 48 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 22
Planetary 32
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 9 0011 4233
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
31 Dec 14 G0
01 Jan 8 G0
02 Jan 8 G0
COMMENT: G1 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 30-Dec for an isolated K index period. G1-G3
geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Antarctic region,
with periods of G1-G3 observed at Casey, and G1-G2 periods at
Mawson and Macquarie Island. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected
over 31-Dec to 02-Jan. The activity on 30-Dec was induced by
the Earth's entry into a coronal hole wind stream. Mildly elevated
geomagnetic activity is expected for 31-Dec. A partially Earth
directed CME may have occurred in association with the M class
solar flare activity.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Dec Normal Normal-fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Dec Normal Normal-fair Fair
01 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
02 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mildly degraded HF conditions observed at middle to
high latitudes during local night hours. Mildly degraded HF conditions
expected for middle to high latitudes on 31-Dec. Mostly normal
HF conditions expected over 01-Jan to 02-Jan.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Dec 104
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20%
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15-20%
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15-30%
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 77
Dec 70
Jan 70
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
31 Dec 45 Depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
01 Jan 90 Near predicted monthly values
02 Jan 90 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 107 was issued on
30 December and is current for 30 Dec to 1 Jan. Maximum usable
frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 30-Dec
were near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced. Spread F
was observed at Hobart during local night. MUFs are generally
expected to be depressed 10 to 20% in the southern Australian
region and near predicted monthly values for the northern Australian
region on 31-Dec following weak overnight geomagnetic activity.
Isolated minor fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Dec
Speed: 434 km/sec Density: 6.0 p/cc Temp: 110000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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