[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 28 December 22 issued 2331 UT on 28 Dec 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Dec 29 10:31:28 EST 2022
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 DECEMBER 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 29 DECEMBER - 31 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Dec: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Dec: 160/114
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Dec 30 Dec 31 Dec
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 158/112 156/110 154/109
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 28-Dec was at the R0 level,
with several low level C-class flares. There are currently six
numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk and one unnumbered
region. AR3169 (N20W74, beta) was responsible for the majority
of the flaring activity and appears stable. AR3176 (N20E37, beta)
is the largest region and has shown minor decay in its trailer
spots. AR3177 (S17E71, beta) recently rotated onto the solar
disk and appears stable. A new unnumbered region has recently
appeared at S03W49 (beta) and has exhibited spot growth. All
other sunspot regions are either stable or in decay. Solar activity
is expected to be at R0-R1 levels over 29-31 Dec. Several CMEs
were observed, but none are considered geoeffective. The solar
wind speed on UT day 28-Dec was elevated and stable, ranging
from 505 to 545 km/s, and is currently near 525km/s. The peak
total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 6 nT, and the
north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +5 to -4 nT. The solar
wind speed is expected to remain elevated on 29-Dec then possibly
increase from 30-Dec due to coronal hole high speed wind stream
effects from a northern hemisphere coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Dec: G0
Estimated Indices 28 Dec : A K
Australian Region 4 22211012
Cocos Island 2 12100001
Darwin 3 21111012
Townsville 5 22212112
Learmonth 4 22212001
Alice Springs 4 22201012
Gingin 3 21211001
Canberra 4 22201012
Hobart 4 22211012
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Dec :
Macquarie Island 3 22111002
Casey 20 46422212
Mawson 13 43323213
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 27 4544 4521
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Dec 15 G0, slight chance G1
30 Dec 10 G0
31 Dec 10 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 28-Dec. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctic region, with an isolated period of
G2 observed at Casey. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected
over 29-31 Dec, with a slight chance for isolated G1 periods
on 29-Dec due to a possible arrival of a weak glancing blow from
a recent CME, though arrival confidence is low for this event.
A western hemisphere coronal hole, though with most of its area
at higher solar latitudes, may induce a mild increase in geomagnetic
activity from 30-Dec.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Dec Normal Normal-fair Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
30 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
31 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions expected over 29-31 Dec.
Mild degradations in HF communication quality may be experienced
at times for mid to high latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Dec 57
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 77
Dec 70
Jan 70
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Dec 60 Near predicted monthly values
30 Dec 60 Near predicted monthly values
31 Dec 60 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 105 was issued on
27 December and is current for 27-29 Dec. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 28-Dec were mostly
near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed in southern Australian
regions. Spread F was observed at Hobart during local night.
Sporadic E was observed at several middle latitude sites. MUFs
are generally expected to be near predicted monthly values over
29-31 Dec, with depressions of 15% for southern Australian region
early today then recovering. Isolated minor fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Dec
Speed: 518 km/sec Density: 1.7 p/cc Temp: 231000 K Bz: -6 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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