[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 27 December 22 issued 2336 UT on 27 Dec 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Dec 28 10:36:06 EST 2022


SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 DECEMBER 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 28 DECEMBER - 30 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
CORRECTED COPY - PENTICTON 10.7CM SOLAR RADIO FLUX UNAVAILABLE
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Dec:  R1

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M2.1    0054UT  possible   lower  West Pacific
  M1.1    0815UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian
  M1.2    1626UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Dec:   NA/NA


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             28 Dec             29 Dec             30 Dec
Activity     R0-R1              R0-R1              R0-R1
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   140/94             140/94             140/94

COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 27-Dec was at the R1 level 
due to three M class events. Solar region AR3176(N20E52, beta) 
produced the M2.1 and the M1.1 flare. Solar region AR3169(N20W59, 
beta-gamma) produced the M1.2 flare. With the decay of a small 
region, there are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the 
solar disk. AR3176 and AR3169 are currently the two largest regions 
on the disk, with AR3176 showing slight growth and AR3169 showing 
slight development in its trailer spots. Solar region AR3171(N23W37, 
beta) the third largest region has been flare quiet, other regions 
are relatively small. No new Earth directed CMEs were observed. 
Solar activity is expected to be at the R0-R1 level. The solar 
wind speed on UT day 27-Dec was enhanced and mostly steady ranging 
from 495 to 574 km/s, and is currently near 530 km/s. The peak 
total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 9 nT and the 
north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +6 to -8nT, with a period 
of southward oriented Bz from 27/0000-1500 UT. From the profile 
of ACE satellite EPAM data which has peaked, indicating that 
the weak glancing blow CME that was expected on 27-Dec, probably 
did arrive on 26-Dec with no apparent clear shock signature in 
the solar wind parameters. There is a slight chance for solar 
wind to increase slightly late 28-Dec early 29-Dec from a recent 
CME but confidence is low. Solar wind speeds may remain elevated 
with an overall declining trend as coronal hole influences decline. 
A coronal hole is visible centered on the solar central meridian, 
but at quite a high solar latitude. This hole may slightly increase 
solar wind speed from around 30-Dec.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Dec: G0

Estimated Indices 27 Dec : A   K           
   Australian Region      16   33344322
      Cocos Island        10   22233410
      Darwin              15   33344312
      Townsville          17   33344332
      Learmonth           18   33354322
      Alice Springs       15   23344322
      Gingin              19   43344422
      Canberra            14   33343322
      Hobart              18   33354322    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Dec :
      Macquarie Island    53   36675531
      Casey               21   44444323
      Mawson              43   56553633

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Dec : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               5   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Hobart               5   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg        18
           Planetary             25                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        19
           Planetary             26   3224 5622     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
28 Dec    15    G0, slight chance of G1 late in UT day
29 Dec    15    G0, slight chance of G1 early in UT day
30 Dec    10    G0

COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 60 was issued on 26 December 
and is current for 27-28 Dec. The Australian geomagnetic field 
was generally at G0 levels on 27-Dec. Isolated periods of G1 
observed at Hobart and Learmonth. The Antarctic geomagnetic field 
was variable with G1-G3 periods observed at Macquarie Island, 
G1-G2 periods observed at Mawson and G0 conditions observed at 
Casey. The mild increase in geomagnetic activity at middle latitudes 
was in association with southward interplanetary magnetic field 
conditions observed for the first half of the UT day 27-Dec. 
The anticipated glancing blow from a recent CME appears to have 
arrived a day earlier than expected on 26-Dec. Geomagnetic activity 
is expected to be at G0 levels, as current mild activity declines, 
with a slight chance for isolated G1 periods late 28-Dec to early 
29-Dec due to a possible arrival of a weak glancing blow from 
a recent CME, though arrival confidence is low for this event. 
A coronal hole that is currently at solar central meridian, though 
with most of its area at higher solar latitudes, may induce a 
mild increase in activity from 30-Dec.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Dec      Normal         Fair-Normal    Fair           

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Dec      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair-normal
29 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
30 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions may have been experienced on 
27-Dec at high latitudes due to increased geomagnetic activity. 
Mostly normal HF conditions expected 28-30 Dec. Mild degradation 
in HF communication quality may be experienced at times for mid 
to high latitudes.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
27 Dec   128

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15-50%.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Depressed 15% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Nov      77
Dec      70
Jan      70

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
28 Dec    65    Depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
29 Dec    70    Near predicted monthly values
30 Dec    70    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 105 was issued on 
27 December and is current for 27-29 Dec. Maximum usable frequencies 
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 27-Dec were mostly 
enhanced by up to 50% as the regional ionosphere had an unexpected 
positive response to the previous nights mild geomagnetic activity. 
Spread F was observed at Hobart over night. Sporadic E was observed 
at several middle latitude sites. The Australian ionosphere has 
been variable after local dawn, 15% depressed in the southern 
region and near normal to 15% enhanced in the northern region. 
MUFs are generally expected to be near predicted monthly values 
on 28-Dec, with depressions of 15% for southern Australian region 
early today then recovering. Isolated minor fadeouts possible.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 26 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.0E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  3.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.00E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: C1.4

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Dec
Speed: 544 km/sec  Density:    0.6 p/cc  Temp:   199000 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au



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