[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 27 December 22 issued 2331 UT on 27 Dec 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Dec 28 10:31:09 EST 2022
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 DECEMBER 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 28 DECEMBER - 30 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Dec: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2.1 0054UT possible lower West Pacific
M1.1 0815UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M1.2 1626UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Dec: 0/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Dec 29 Dec 30 Dec
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 140/94 140/94
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 27-Dec was at the R1 level
due to three M class events. Solar region AR3176(N20E52, beta)
produced the M2.1 and the M1.1 flare. Solar region AR3169(N20W59,
beta-gamma) produced the M1.2 flare. With the decay of a small
region, there are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the
solar disk. AR3176 and AR3169 are currently the two largest regions
on the disk, with AR3176 showing slight growth and AR3169 showing
slight development in its trailer spots. Solar region AR3171(N23W37,
beta) the third largest region has been flare quiet, other regions
are relatively small. No new Earth directed CMEs were observed.
Solar activity is expected to be at the R0-R1 level. The solar
wind speed on UT day 27-Dec was enhanced and mostly steady ranging
from 495 to 574 km/s, and is currently near 530 km/s. The peak
total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 9 nT and the
north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +6 to -8nT, with a period
of southward oriented Bz from 27/0000-1500 UT. From the profile
of ACE satellite EPAM data which has peaked, indicating that
the weak glancing blow CME that was expected on 27-Dec, probably
did arrive on 26-Dec with no apparent clear shock signature in
the solar wind parameters. There is a slight chance for solar
wind to increase slightly late 28-Dec early 29-Dec from a recent
CME but confidence is low. Solar wind speeds may remain elevated
with an overall declining trend as coronal hole influences decline.
A coronal hole is visible centered on the solar central meridian,
but at quite a high solar latitude. This hole may slightly increase
solar wind speed from around 30-Dec.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Dec: G0
Estimated Indices 27 Dec : A K
Australian Region 16 33344322
Cocos Island 10 22233410
Darwin 15 33344312
Townsville 17 33344332
Learmonth 18 33354322
Alice Springs 15 23344322
Gingin 19 43344422
Canberra 14 33343322
Hobart 18 33354322
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Dec :
Macquarie Island 53 36675531
Casey 21 44444323
Mawson 43 56553633
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 5 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 5 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 18
Planetary 25
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 19
Planetary 26 3224 5622
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Dec 15 G0, slight chance of G1 late in UT day
29 Dec 15 G0, slight chance of G1 early in UT day
30 Dec 10 G0
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 60 was issued on 26 December
and is current for 27-28 Dec. The Australian geomagnetic field
was generally at G0 levels on 27-Dec. Isolated periods of G1
observed at Hobart and Learmonth. The Antarctic geomagnetic field
was variable with G1-G3 periods observed at Macquarie Island,
G1-G2 periods observed at Mawson and G0 conditions observed at
Casey. The mild increase in geomagnetic activity at middle latitudes
was in association with southward interplanetary magnetic field
conditions observed for the first half of the UT day 27-Dec.
The anticipated glancing blow from a recent CME appears to have
arrived a day earlier than expected on 26-Dec. Geomagnetic activity
is expected to be at G0 levels, as current mild activity declines,
with a slight chance for isolated G1 periods late 28-Dec to early
29-Dec due to a possible arrival of a weak glancing blow from
a recent CME, though arrival confidence is low for this event.
A coronal hole that is currently at solar central meridian, though
with most of its area at higher solar latitudes, may induce a
mild increase in activity from 30-Dec.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Dec Normal Fair-Normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Dec Normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
29 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
30 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions may have been experienced on
27-Dec at high latitudes due to increased geomagnetic activity.
Mostly normal HF conditions expected 28-30 Dec. Mild degradation
in HF communication quality may be experienced at times for mid
to high latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Dec 128
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15-50%.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Depressed 15% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 77
Dec 70
Jan 70
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Dec 65 Depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
29 Dec 70 Near predicted monthly values
30 Dec 70 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 105 was issued on
27 December and is current for 27-29 Dec. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 27-Dec were mostly
enhanced by up to 50% as the regional ionosphere had an unexpected
positive response to the previous nights mild geomagnetic activity.
Spread F was observed at Hobart over night. Sporadic E was observed
at several middle latitude sites. The Australian ionosphere has
been variable after local dawn, 15% depressed in the southern
region and near normal to 15% enhanced in the northern region.
MUFs are generally expected to be near predicted monthly values
on 28-Dec, with depressions of 15% for southern Australian region
early today then recovering. Isolated minor fadeouts possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Dec
Speed: 544 km/sec Density: 0.6 p/cc Temp: 199000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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