[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 26 December 22 issued 2330 UT on 26 Dec 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Dec 27 10:30:56 EST 2022
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 DECEMBER 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 27 DECEMBER - 29 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Dec: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Dec: 0/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Dec 28 Dec 29 Dec
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 131/85 131/85 131/85
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 26-Dec was at R0 levels, with
C class flaring only. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot
regions on the solar disk. Solar region AR3176(N20E66, beta)
is growing and produced C class flaring, the largest a C6.0 at
26/1951UT. Solar Region AR3169(N20W46, beta-gamma), is the largest
solar region currently on the disk and also produced C class
flares the largest a C4.4 at 26/1658UT. This region exhibited
minor growth in its trailer spots. Other solar regions appeared
mostly stable. The GOES background X-ray flux shows a slight
increasing trend over the past 24 hours. Solar activity is expected
to be at R0-R1 levels over 27-29 Dec. No new Earth directed CMEs
observed, with CMEs associated with prominence limb eruptions.
There are possibly two partially Earth directed CMEs currently
en route, the first associated with an erupting filament and
predominately northeast directed CME on 24/0200UT, the second
associated with a C7 flare and filament eruption on 25/0700UT.
The first event is expected to arrive on 27-Dec, the second may
arrive on 29-Dec, though confidence is low. The solar wind speed
on UT day 26-Dec was enhanced and very variable ranging from
371 to 716 km/s, and is currently near 503 km/s. The peak total
interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 11 nT and the north-south
IMF component (Bz) range was +8 to -10nT, with a period of southward
oriented Bz from 26/0600-1500 UT. Solar wind speeds may remain
elevated due to the combination of declining coronal hole wind
stream effects and the possible grazing impact from the 24-Dec
CME. However, it is difficult to distinguish coronal hole and
indirect CME influences due to solar wind data variability and
also considering the eastward location of the 24-Dec erupting
solar filament which may result in an indistinct signature in
the solar wind parameters, so it is possible that the glancing
blow from this CME may have already arrived. A coronal hole is
visible just to the east of the solar central meridian, but at
quite a high solar latitude. This hole may slightly increase
solar wind speed from around 30-Dec.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Dec: G1
Estimated Indices 26 Dec : A K
Australian Region 17 21235521
Cocos Island 16 11235511
Darwin 14 21235411
Townsville 15 31235421
Learmonth 18 22235522
Alice Springs 17 21235521
Gingin 15 21235422
Canberra 14 21235421
Hobart 18 21335521
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Dec :
Macquarie Island 30 20356621
Casey 21 44444323
Mawson 31 43446533
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 19
Planetary 25
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10 3412 2223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Dec 18 G0-G1
28 Dec 12 G0
29 Dec 16 G0, chance of G1
COMMENT: ASWFC Geomagnetic Warning 60 was issued on 26 December
and is current for 27-28 Dec. The Australian geomagnetic field
was at G1 levels on 26-Dec. The Antarctic geomagnetic field was
variable with G1 and G2 periods observed at Macquarie Island
and Mawson, and G0 conditions observed at Casey. Geomagnetic
activity is expected to be at G0-G1 levels over 27-Dec due to
a possible glancing blow from a recent CME.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Dec Fair Fair Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Dec Normal Normal-fair Fair
28 Dec Normal Normal Fair-normal
29 Dec Normal Normal-fair Fair-normal
COMMENT: Mildly degraded HF conditions are expected over 27-28
Dec for mid to high latitudes.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Dec 70
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 77
Dec 70
Jan 70
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Dec 70 Depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
28 Dec 70 Depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
29 Dec 70 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) in the Australian
region on UT day 26-Dec were mostly near predicted monthly values.
Spread F was observed at Hobart over night. Sporadic E was observed
at Perth and Townsville. MUFs are expected to be near predicted
monthly values on 27-Dec, with depressions of 15% possible for
southern Australian region after local dawn. Isolated minor fadeouts
possible.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.9E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B9.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Dec
Speed: 520 km/sec Density: 0.1 p/cc Temp: 198000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list