[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 25 December 22 issued 2330 UT on 25 Dec 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Dec 26 10:30:54 EST 2022
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 DECEMBER 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 26 DECEMBER - 28 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Dec: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Dec: 0/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Dec 27 Dec 28 Dec
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 136/90 138/92
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 25-Dec was at R0 levels, with
C class flaring only. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot
regions on the solar disk. AR3169 (N20W35, beta) has continued
to grow its trailer spots and remains the most complex sunspot
region on the solar disk, although it has yet to do any significant
flares. AR3171 (N23W13, beta) and AR3172 (S35E12, beta) have
also shown growth in their trailer spots. All other sunspot regions
are either stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected to
be at R0-R1 levels over 26-28 Dec. Several CMEs were observed
over 25-Dec. Most notably was a southwest directed CME observed
in SOHO imagery from 25/0724UT. The possible origin from this
CME was AR3169, which produced a C7 flare at 25/0700UT and filament
eruption directed to the southwest. An impact to Earth may be
observed on 29-Dec, however confidence is low. No other CMEs
with potential Earth-directed components were observed. The solar
wind speed on UT day 25-Dec was variable and ranged from 424
to 711 km/s, and recently dropped in speed to near 440 km/s.
The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 8
nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +4 to -6
nT, with a brief period of southward oriented Bz from 25/1700
to 25/1800 UT. The solar wind speed is expected to continue its
slow decline to background levels over 26-Dec, with the possibility
of an increase on 27-Dec due to possible grazing impacts from
recent CMEs. Further increases in solar wind speed are possible
on 28-Dec due to a small coronal hole currently crossing the
central meridian at latitude N15.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Dec: G0
Estimated Indices 25 Dec : A K
Australian Region 5 32110112
Cocos Island 3 22110102
Darwin 5 32100122
Townsville 7 32111123
Learmonth 5 32000213
Alice Springs 4 32100112
Gingin 5 32000113
Canberra 5 32110112
Hobart 5 32111112
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Dec :
Macquarie Island 7 33111221
Casey 19 55332113
Mawson 22 44213445
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 13 (Quiet)
Hobart 6 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 21 2444 3543
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Dec 8 G0
27 Dec 18 G0-G1
28 Dec 12 G0, chance G1
COMMENT: The Australian geomagnetic field was at G0 levels on
25-Dec. The Antarctic geomagnetic field was mostly at G0 levels,
with 2 consecutive periods of G1 at Casey. Geomagnetic activity
is expected to be at G0 levels over 26-Dec, then possible isolated
G1 periods may occur on 27-Dec due to grazing impacts from recent
CMEs. These effects may continue in to 28-Dec.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Dec Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
27 Dec Normal Normal-fair Fair
28 Dec Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Normal to mildly degraded HF conditions are expected
over 26-28 Dec, due to persistent sporadic-E and anticipated
geomagnetic activity, particularly in the high latitude regions.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Dec 59
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 77
Dec 70
Jan 70
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Dec 70 Near predicted monthly values
27 Dec 55 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed
28 Dec 60 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 103 was issued on
25 December and is current for 25-26 Dec. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 25-Dec were mostly
near predicted monthly values, with some depressions of 15% observed
during the local day in the southern regions. Strong sporadic-E
was observed at most sites over the UT day and night. MUFs are
expected to be near predicted monthly values on 26-Dec, then
becoming up to 20% depressed over 27-28 Dec to follow anticipated
geomagnetic activity. Sporadic-E is expected to continue over
26-28 Dec. Isolated shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.6
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Dec
Speed: 559 km/sec Density: 11.6 p/cc Temp: 623000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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