[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 24 December 22 issued 2330 UT on 24 Dec 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Dec 25 10:30:55 EST 2022
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 DECEMBER 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 25 DECEMBER - 27 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Dec: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Dec: 133/87
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Dec 26 Dec 27 Dec
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 133/87 135/89 136/90
COMMENT: Solar activity on Ut day 24-Dec was at the R0 level,
with several C-class flares. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot
regions on the solar disk. AR3169 (N20W21, beta-gamma) has grown
in complexity and shown growth in its trailer spots. AR3172 (S35E25,
beta) has shown minor growth in its trailer spots, and all other
sunspot regions are either stable or in decay. Solar activity
is expected to be at R0-R1 levels over 25-27 Dec, with a chance
of R2 flares. Several filament eruptions were observed on 24-Dec,
and several CMEs were observed from these events. From 23/1447
a filament erupted, which can be seen in GOES SUVI imagery, and
produced a slow southward CME. The CME may have a mild grazing
impact on late 27-Dec to early 28-Dec. From 24/0153UT a filament
erupted near N30E30 which, produced a fast CME visible from 24/0324UT,
but is not analysed to be geoeffective. A southwest CME was observed
in SOHO imagery from 24/0924UT but was modelled as a farside
event and not considered geoeffective. The solar wind speed on
UT day 24-Dec was variable, and ranged from 531 to 685 km/s,
and is currently near 615 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 11 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +8 to -8 nT. Bz was southward oriented for several
prolonged periods over 24-Dec. The solar wind is expected to
remain elevated for 25-Dec, then begin decreasing to background
levels over 26-27 Dec.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Dec: G0
Estimated Indices 24 Dec : A K
Australian Region 15 34333323
Cocos Island 10 33232311
Darwin 14 34233323
Townsville 16 34333333
Learmonth 17 34333423
Alice Springs 15 34333323
Gingin 15 33343323
Canberra 15 34333323
Hobart 19 34343433
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Dec :
Macquarie Island 33 35464532
Casey 38 66544423
Mawson 38 46644532
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 20
Planetary 25
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 19
Planetary 24 3142 6424
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Dec 15 G0, slight chance G1
26 Dec 12 G0
27 Dec 8 G0, slight chance G1
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 24-Dec. G1-G2 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Antarctic region due to a small equatorial coronal hole
high speed wind stream. Geomagnetic activity is expected to be
at mostly G0 conditions over 25-27 Dec, with a slight chance
of an isolated period of G1 on 25-Dec as coronal hole effects
abate. A CME first observed 24/0200 UT may cause a mild grazing
impact late 27-Dec to early 28-Dec.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Dec Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
26 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
27 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Normal to mildly degraded HF conditions are expected
over 25-Dec, due to expected mild geomagnetic activity, during
local night and dawn hours. Normal HF conditions are expected
over 26-27 Dec.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Dec 57
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 77
Dec 70
Jan 70
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Dec 60 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed
26 Dec 70 Near predicted monthly values
27 Dec 70 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC HF Communications Warning 102 was issued on 23
December and is current for 24-25 Dec. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) in the Australian region on UT day 24-Dec were mostly
near predicted values, with some depressions up to 25% during
local day and after local dawn. Strong sporadic-E was observed
at most sites. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly
values over 25-27 Dec, with sporadic-E likely to persist over
the period. Mild depressions are possible on 25-Dec due to recent
mild geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Dec
Speed: 507 km/sec Density: 10.4 p/cc Temp: 256000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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